Cautionary Notes; Reading This Fed: Jim Cramer's Best Blogs

TheStreet.com

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:

  • three things that make him nervous; and
  • when the market has no idea what to do.

Click here for information on RealMoney, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.


3 Things Make Me Nervous

Posted at 2:22 p.m. EDT on Friday, Sept. 20

Three things make me nervous.

One, the Volatility Index (VIX) is way too low.

Two, we are headed into the budget showdown, and you need cash to buy as the showdown goes along -- it is a gauntlet, remember.

Three, we are so overbought it makes sense to take profits, even if things are good -- and they aren't.

We are so uncertain at this juncture. The financials act terribly because people sense that rates can't stay down, even as they appear to be. Retail has really stalled. We have earnings around the corner. We are hitting all sorts of new highs.

Yet, where's the beef? If you haven't read a single Washington story, you know that you are going to hear endless shutdown talk. Why is that a reason to buy? It is only a reason to buy when we get closer to the end and you need cash now.

We have been trimming all day because the complacency ahead of the talks is a little mind-numbing.

And the ultimate tell? Tesla , Amazon and Netflix mock all the short-sellers. They show the worst of the speculative spirits. A classic case of cult stocks that are immune -- until they aren't.

At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, had no positions in the stocks mentioned.


Reading This Fed Rotation

Posted at 2:13 p.m. EDT on Thursday, Sept. 19

Sometimes the market has no idea what to do. This is one of those times.

First, we have decided that the Fed is all powerful and because it got rates down to 2.75% on the 10-year Treasury note, we should sell stocks that do well in a recession, especially if they delivered just in-line earnings.

So consumer packaged goods company ConAgra , which reported pretty much exactly what it said it would nine days ago, gets clobbered, going down another dollar on top of the two bucks it lost the day of the preannouncement. Why not? Who needs an underperforming food company when the Fed just greenlighted an economic expansion. Who needs Slim Jims when we can buy stocks of companies that make cabinets and washing machines? Same with General Mills . This fantastic company reported an in-line number and gave in-line guidance, and it has been eviscerated. Who needs Cheerios when we can buy railroad stocks?

What were we thinking when the S&P 500 futures took up the slower growing PepsiCo on a day when the Fed decided it wasn't going to cut back its bond buying. Silly us, ring the register on PepsiCo and go buy the stock of a shirt company, which is how PepsiCo can drop $1.40.

McDonald's gives you a nice 5% dividend boost, bringing the yield up to 3.3%. But who needs a fast-food-restaurant stock when we can buy a once-lagging real estate investment trust company like Federal Realty , which I had on Mad Money last night?

Ah, but wait a second. As much as the Fed has decided to fix things so that all is better domestically, what do we do with the stocks of companies we know aren't having good quarters but could be saved by the Fed next quartet? Will the market look through a bad quarter to get to one that will be boosted by a non-taper?

I don't think so, which is why the market is selling down the stocks of the homebuilders that it took up yesterday. We know from the announcement of sales of previously owned homes today that while the numbers were at a six-year high, the commentary from the National Association of Realtors was incredibly downbeat. Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the association, called it "the last hurrah" and said that the market may be experiencing a "temporary peak" as rising rates and declining affordability bring that number down in the future. Hardly reassuring.

Meanwhile, if the Fed is making things easy again, that's terrific for traveling and spending, right? Then why did the market take the Morgan Stanley downgrade of Disney so hard, whacking that stock for a $1.35 loss?

Plus, it's hard as all get out to figure out what to do with the financials. Lots of banks and insurers were going up because they do better in a rising rate environment. But now we have a falling rate environment, so we have to sell what we liked so much because of the Fed's actions. So the regional banks all go down the drain and big insurers like Prudential or Lincoln National (which I talked about last night as one of the best performers in the market this year) get crushed. But wait a second -- Travelers catches an upgrade and flies up a dollar because its quarter's terrific. Who can keep up with this insanity?

It's helpful in moments like this to remind people that you want to buy companies that aren't affected by this vortex, companies like the big industrial enterprises that the Fed does not control with its tapering. You want to buy stocks like United Technologies , 3M and Emerson Electric , which are levered to a turn in Europe and newfound strength in China. Or stocks like Boeing and Honeywell , which are levered to aerospace, which, again, has nothing to do with the Fed. Only buy the Fed-related stocks if you are certain they will blow away numbers here and now because no, the market will not look through earnings. It will sell off disappointers, as it always does.

In the end, accept that when the market's truly surprised by an act of the Fed, many people reverse field, many people make mistakes and many people have no idea, but they take action anyway.

Relax, take a breath and recognize that if you knew a company was doing poorly now it won't be saved by the Fed when it reports. After yesterday's big run, they are sells.

But the ones that are doing well? If they are down because of this silly rotation, those are the ones to buy.

At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, was long HON.

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