BIG MISS: EMPIRE FED FALLS TO -8.10

Business Insider

UPDATE: The latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the NY Fed is out.

The headline number unexpectedly fell to -8.10 against expectations of a rise to -1.00.

Last month's reading was -5.22.

Click here for updates >

According to the report, effects from Hurricane Sandy still weigh on the region:

In addition to the price questions, a three-part follow-up question was asked on the net effects of superstorm Sandy on firms’ revenues in October and November and the storm’s expected effects on December revenues. Establishments in downstate New York (the New York City metro area) reported that revenues were roughly 7 percent lower than they otherwise would have been in October and were diminished by about 5 percent in November. However, revenues were expected to be unaffected, on net, in December.

Respondents in upstate New York saw virtually no net effect, on average, in any of the three months. However, a few upstate respondents reported sizable effects on revenues—both increases and decreases—of 10 percent or more. Increases, for example, accrued to manufacturers of water removal equipment and those taking on extra production from affected facilities in the New York City area; decreases mainly stemmed from the storm’s adverse effects on customers and supply chains.

Below, additional output from the release:

The December Empire State Manufacturing Survey  indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to decline at a modest pace. The general business conditions index was negative for a fifth consecutive month, falling three points to -8.1. The new orders index dropped to -3.7, while the shipments index declined six points to 8.8. At 16.1, the prices paid index indicated that input prices continued to rise at a moderate pace, while the prices received index fell five points to 1.1, suggesting that selling prices were flat. Employment indexes pointed to weaker labor market conditions, with the indexes for both number of employees and the average workweek registering values below zero for a second consecutive month. Indexes for the six-month outlook were generally higher than last month, although the level of optimism remained at a level well below that seen earlier this year.

In a series of supplementary questions, firms were asked about past and expected price changes overall and in a number of categories. In general, respondents predicted that prices paid for most budget categories would increase by about the same rate in calendar 2013 as in 2012. The steepest price increases—both actual and expected—were reported for employee benefits, up 6.4 percent, on average, in 2012 and expected to be up 7.2 percent in 2013. Respondents were also asked how they expected their selling prices to change over the next year. The average expected increase in the current survey was 1.0 percent—down from 1.8 percent in last year's survey and 3.2 percent in the December 2010 survey. Manufacturers were also asked about superstorm Sandy's recent and expected effects on revenues: Down-state establishments estimated that revenues in October and November were 7 percent and 5 percent lower, respectively, than they otherwise would have been.

Click here for the full release >

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ORIGINAL: Minutes away from the latest Empire Fed manufacturing report, out at 8:30 AM ET.

Economists expect the index to rise to a -1.00 reading from -5.22 last month, marking a less pronounced slowdown in manufacturing activity.

We will have the report LIVE at 8:30 AM ET.



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