On Monday I mentioned how agriculture stocks could be ready to turn. There could be a change of trend on the way for integrated oil, too. If that’s the case, shares of ConocoPhillips (COP) could be ready to bounce .
The shares have fallen from $59.50 to $52.50 during the past 50 days, but that bearish move may be on its last fume. That’s because COP shares are up against two strong levels of support at the $52 level.
First, the $52 area was an important level of support (blue horizontal line) throughout May, June, November and December. It seems likely that this level will provide a certain amount of near-term support once again.
The second spot where I expect the shares to encounter support is along the 200-day moving average (black line in chart above), which many investors use to define a spot to add shares to existing positions. A rising 200-day moving average often increases the probability that institutional investors will accumulate shares.
The 200-day is currently at $53.38. I expect investors to be accumulating shares at any price below that level.
Oil has fallen from $105 to $94 in a little over a week. The decline in crude oil appears stretched and any bounce in it should result in a similar rise in COP. In the short term, I look for a quick blast to $56.50.
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