Let's try to game what could happen in Syria. First, it's entirely possible that the U.S. is doing something for show here. We launch missiles at the various soft targets. We make a lot of noise. We definitely kill some of their bad guys. Maybe we use unmanned planes to target some of the key people. The one thing we'll have done for certain is give Syrian President Bashar al-Assad lots of time to get into his bunker, and that means he will be safe when we do it.
Which is why this was so stupid. We all know he isn't going to renounce these weapons, because he contends he didn't use them. To renounce them is to admit that he used them. So he would have to be a total idiot to let himself get killed by this strike.
Secondly, when we said Assad must not use poison gas, we didn't say what our response would be if he did use it. So maybe all that will happen is that the U.S. will launch, and then we'll say we'll launch big time if he does it again -- and then he doesn't do it again. I hate to be cavalier, but isn't that the likely scenario? Then we'll go back to watching from the sidelines to see if he does it again, and he'd have to be a total moron to do it again, because we'll have made it clear that we would stop at nothing to kill him.
So that means we are waiting on an event that could be over rather quickly, and when the smoke clears we in the market will still have to deal with Washington.
Now, let's say the Federal Reserve were to say that it's too soon to taper stimulus because of the vicious gridlock -- unlikely, but you never know -- and we get the gridlock. Interest rates will then go back down, and we'll see have a pretty decent market rally.
That's why, if the market declines Thursday, as it looks like it will do today, it may pay to start buying if there is a possibility that the bombing will be over by then. There should be some trepidation by the bulls that the scenario I just outlined will actually occur. Then the rest can be bought Friday, giving Thursday to the fates.
That's my best estimation of how to invest around Syria. I, like you, wish I knew more. But, as we are in a vacuum, we can only say that we should see another day like today -- so you might want to take advantage of it.
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