Crude Oil Came Alive Today

Rod David

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Crude oil came alive Monday, but a rally can't afford to hesitate. Any further hesitation would make the pattern very top heavy very fast.

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Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Sunday night's plunge under prior lows was recovered into Monday's open, and extended back up to 83.05 resistance. Probes of 83.20-83.409 are possible, but must be exceeded to signal a new rally underway.

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Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Friday's probe above 1.2955 had to be rejected Monday, and the market went a long way to get that done, rejecting an overnight rally back to prior highs at 1.3095 back to new lows under 1.2850. That's quite a shock to the system, which might be absorbed by delaying lower lows. But a second consecutive lower close Tuesday would confirm a new downleg underway.

Apr Contract GC; (GLD)
Monday's gap down extended to test 1588.50, but recovered back to Friday's 1606.00 close to avoid signaling a new downleg underway. Back under 1601.00 and 1596.50 would still qualify.

May Contract SI; (SLV)
Monday's probe under prior lows held 28.45 and quickly recovered back above 28.65 support to again avoid signaling a new downleg underway.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (TLT)
Despite its breakout having become almost obligatory, Friday's attack on the 143-22 buy signal reacted down Sunday night to test 142-24 support. The reaction was recovered entirely intraday Monday, although 143-22 was still being tested and not yet triggered.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (USO)
The on-again pattern was on-again with a vengeance Monday, gapping up through 94.00 to touch 95.65 before hesitating. A second consecutive fresh high close Tuesday would confirm the breakout. Otherwise, that might have been the last opportunity to avoid a new downleg.

Natural Gas
Apr Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Monday's opening test of 4.00 resistance held again, this time reacting down more than a dime. A second consecutive lower close Tuesday would put into play 3.30-3.35.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.

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