Crude Oil May Fall as Gold Gains on US Jobless Claims Data

DailyFX

Crude oil may fall amid deterioration in risk appetite while gold gains on Fed QE continuity bets if weekly US jobless claims data proves disappointing.

Talking Points

  • Gold, Silver May Rise as Dovish FOMC Minutes Stoke Anti-Fiat Demand
  • Crude Oil and Copper Look to Earnings Docket to Establish Risk Trends

Commodity prices are little-changed ahead of the US trading session. A relatively quiet economic calendar is headlined by weekly Jobless Claims figures. Economists’ forecasts call for a slight improvement on the closely-watched Initial Claims print, but a downside surprise in line with the deterioration in US news-flow relative to expectations since late March seems like a distinct possibility. Such an outcome may weigh on risk appetite, pushing cycle-linked crude oil and copper prices lower. A soft print may be supportive for gold and silver however, reinforcing Fed QE continuity expectations and thereby amplifying anti-fiat demand while compounding overnight pressure on the US Dollar.

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WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $94.64 // +0.44 // +0.47%

Prices broke above resistance at 93.91, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 38.2% level at 95.13. A further push beyond that targets the 50% level at 96.11. Alternatively, a reversal back beneath 93.91 aims for the April 5 low at 91.95.

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Commodities_Oil_May_Fall_as_Gold_Gains_on_US_Jobless_Claims_Data_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil May Fall as Gold Gains on US Jobless Claims Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1558.54 // -26.80 // -1.69%

Prices recoiled from resistance at 1586.48, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, taking out support at 1565.69 marked by the 38.2% level. Sellers now aim to challenge the 50% Fib at 1458.89, with a drop below that eyeing the 61.8% expansion at 1532.09. Alternatively, a reversal back above 1565.69 exposes 1586.48 anew.

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Commodities_Oil_May_Fall_as_Gold_Gains_on_US_Jobless_Claims_Data_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil May Fall as Gold Gains on US Jobless Claims Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $27.63 // -0.37 // -1.30%

Prices rebounded as expected, completing a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern and taking out resistance at 27.48, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion. The bulls are now challenging the 23.6% level at 28.01, with a further push above that aiming for the 38.2% mark at 28.86. The 27.48 level has been recast as near-term support. A turn back beneath that eyes the April 4 low at 26.63.

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Commodities_Oil_May_Fall_as_Gold_Gains_on_US_Jobless_Claims_Data_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil May Fall as Gold Gains on US Jobless Claims Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.418 // -0.024 // -0.70%

Prices are correcting cautiously lower following an expected rebound. Sellers are testing below resistance-turned-support at 3.420, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, eyeing a formerly broken channel top at 3.388 and the 14.6% level at 3.376. A break below the latter level exposes the April 4 low at 3.305. Alternatively, a turn back above 3.420 aims for the 38.2% retracement at 3.491.

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Commodities_Oil_May_Fall_as_Gold_Gains_on_US_Jobless_Claims_Data_body_Picture_6.png, Crude Oil May Fall as Gold Gains on US Jobless Claims Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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