Is Crude Oil Ready to Resume Its Rally?


The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

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Today's Highlight: Has crude oil completed its correction from the pre-war surge?

Dollar Basket
Sep Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Extending to fresh highs Friday confirmed Thursday's breakout, putting into play 83.10 so long as 81.85 holds as support.

Sep Contract EC; (FXE)
Extending sharply lower Friday confirmed Thursday's breakout, putting into play 1.304 so long as 1.3265 holds as resistance.

Oct Contract GC; (GLD)
Despite 1405.50 having held its test as support Thursday, lower lows overnight and Friday morning tested 1491.50. A reaction up held 1405.50 as resistance, needing to recover it for another probe above 1420.00 to be in play.

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Dec Contract SI; (SLV)
Wednesday's key reversal had fulfilled its minimum objectives Thursday, but extended down further Friday. Closing back above 24.10 would signal the pullback was resolving up to probe back above 25.00.

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30-Year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
Friday's ranging held a retest of Thursday's highs. But not yet resuming the decline does keep the door open to extending the interim bounce. Closing back under 132-10 and 131-30 would still resume the decline.

Crude Oil
Oct Contract CL; (USO)
The pullback extended lower Thursday night to 106.75, which was attacked Friday morning. A probe above 110.65 would be in play back above 108.75.

Natural Gas
Oct Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Thursday's recovery did not extend higher Friday. Neither was it rejected, so any early strength above 3.64 Monday would still be credible for extending higher through the day.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.

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