MrTopStep Best of 2012: Crude Oil Treading Water, Traders Hope for New Low

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DeCarley Trading Crude Oil Chart

Crude Oil Chart

Crude oil has failed to make progress in either direction since the bottom fell out in mid-October. However, one thing we have learned about the energy markets is quiet trade is often the calm before the storm. In our opinion, the best trade might be to patiently wait (hope) for lower prices to establish bullish positions.

According to seasonal tendencies, the crude oil market typically finds some sort of a bottom in early December and this gives prices plenty of time to slide into the low $80s, or maybe even high $70's before finding a floor. Corroborating our idea of further near-term weakness, data suggest the equity markets experience post-Black Friday depression and this should aid in the selling of all risk assets.

From a charting perspective, oscillators are mixed and provide little justification of taking an aggressive position either way. On the other hand, simple trend-line analysis suggests there is significant resistance in the high $80's. If we are wrong, and the rally breaks out of the down-trend channel the bulls will be targeting $95/$96.