Cyprus Bank Levy Vote to Overshadow German, UK Economic Data

Ilya Spivak

Forex markets are likely to look past German ZEW and UK CPI data releases as all eyes turn to a Parliamentary vote on Cyprus’ EU bailout terms.

Talking Points

  • All Eyes on Cyprus as Parliament Votes on EU Bailout Terms
  • Euro, Risk-Linked Currencies to Fall if Bank Levy is Ratified
  • UK CPI, German ZEW Data Unlikely to Drive FX Volatility

The economic fills out with top-tier event risk in European trading hours but the fiasco in Cyprus is likely to remain central for financial markets. The island nation’s Parliament is due to vote on the terms of the controversial EU bailout deal that will impose a bank levy on deposits in Cypriot banks. Passage of the measure will set a precedent for debt crisis management that could spark bank runs in other Eurozone countries with sickly banks (notably Spain) as depositors look to safeguard their savings from potential future seizure. Fears of such an outcome stand to put the Euro under pressure. Overall risk appetite is likewise vulnerable in this scenario, threatening sentiment-geared currencies including the Canadian and Australian Dollars.

February’s UK CPI figures are expected to put the headline year-on-year inflation rate at 2.8 percent, marking an eight-month high. The result seems unlikely to offer a meaningful lift to the British Pound however given its limited implications for Bank of England monetary policy, where the dominant world-view continues to appear decidedly dovish. The March edition of the German ZEW Survey of investor confidence is expected to show a slight improvement in respondents’ assessment of the current economic landscape coupled with a narrow pullback in the forward-looking Expectations index. This too is likely to pass with little fanfare absent a wild deviation from consensus forecasts against a backdrop of more pressing Eurozone concerns.

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

0:30

AUD

RBA March Meeting Minutes

-

-

-

2:00

CNY

Actual FDI (YoY) (FEB)

6.3%

-4.8%

-7.3%

2:00

CNY

Conference Board Leading Index (FEB)

257.5

-

254.3

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (JAN F)

95.0

-

96.3

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (JAN F)

91.6

-

92.0

5:30

JPY

Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (FEB)

0.3%

-

0.2%

5:30

JPY

Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (FEB)

2.5%

-

0.5%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

EU 25 New Car Registrations (FEB)

-

-8.7%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Input n.s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

1.5%

1.3%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Input n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

0.8%

1.8%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

0.4%

0.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

1.8%

2.0%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

0.3%

0.2%

Medium

9:30

GBP

PPI Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

1.1%

1.4%

Medium

9:30

GBP

ONS House Prices (YoY) (JAN)

2.4%

3.3%

Low

9:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) (FEB)

0.7%

-0.5%

High

9:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) (FEB)

2.8%

2.7%

High

9:30

GBP

CPI - Core (YoY) (FEB)

2.2%

2.3%

Medium

9:30

GBP

RPI (MoM) (FEB)

0.8%

-0.4%

Low

9:30

GBP

RPI (YoY) (FEB)

3.3%

3.3%

Low

9:30

GBP

RPI Ex Mort Int. Payments (YoY) (FEB)

3.2%

3.3%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Construction Output (YoY) (JAN)

-

-4.8%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Construction Output (MoM) (JAN)

-

-1.7%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) (MAR)

-

42.4

Medium

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Curr. Situation) (MAR)

6.0

5.2

High

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) (MAR)

48.1

48.2

High

16:00

EUR

Cyprus Parliament to Vote on EU Bailout Plan

-

-

High

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2894

1.3008

GBPUSD

1.5058

1.5157

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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