The Daily Energy Technical Report 3.12.13

This raised concerns that imports of oil to the largest energy consumer may be curtailed. RBOB started the day very strong, leaping over last week’s high to see the 3.2675 area. However, with the return of the Sweeney Texas refinery, the bulls jumped on gasoline to take profits. There was noted crack selling and a wild range of over 13 cents in the fuel market.

WTI

WTI	S2	S1	CLOSE	R1	R2	TREND
DAILY	8975	9137	9206	9264	9370	UP
WEEKLY	8187	8944	9195	9824	10350	UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 93.60, 93.84 , 90.84

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 90 .78 , 93.50 , 94 .32

We needed 90.80 to hold to give this market a look of strength.

• The 100 DMA has held on two passes and April has responded by moving higher.

• Our model continues to see higher prices as likely although it may be in fits and starts.

• April will have initial support at 91.45 to 91.35. The minor downside pivot is 91.25.

• The key downside pivot is 90.80.

• A daily settle below that level will institute a negative outlook.

• However, we look for April to hold and attempt a crossing of the Monday high.

• Once 92.15 is removed April will jump to 92.60 to 92.70.

• The minor upside pivot is 93.00.

• The key resistance, and there is plenty of it, is found at the 93.60 to 93.80 zone.

• We are a seller at that area on its first pass. However, we view Tuesday’s price action as a likely two way street.

BRENT

BRENT	S2	S1	CLOSE	R1	R2	TREND
DAILY	10666	10914	11022	11135	11223	CONGEST LOWER
WEEKLY	9647	10745	11085	11890	12017	CONGEST

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 114.05 , 113.26 , 111.42

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 111.35 , 112 .08 , 111.89

Just as WTI has been holding its 100 DMA, April cannot rise above her’s.

• In fact April has a weak looking picture that has formed.

• The move to 109.14 did not complete the wave 5 of this pattern. Rather it was part of a corrective pattern.

• The algo’s are programed to run stops. This in turn has the market move below pivots, but not in the trending fashion.

• This is not a good sign for the bulls. It suggests that the market will come back to fulfill its requirement for a fifth wave down.

• However, April may well have another corrective leg to the upside before a challenge of 109.00 is seen.

• In this instance April will find resistance at 111.20 to 111.30. The minor upside pivot is 111.40.

• The key upside pivot is 112.25.

• The pivot of 109.14 will yield a drop to 106.66 if it is settled below on a daily basis.

• We are neutral of this market for Tuesday.

WTI-BRENT

WTI-BRENT	S2	S1	CLOSE	R1	R2	TREND
DAILY	-1970	-1892	-1816	-1785	-1694	S.T.PEAK
WEEKLY	-2270	-2045	–1890	–1542	-1325	UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: -19.79 , -19.71 , -20.27

Weekly Moving Averages: 55, 100, & 200: - 19 .33 , - 20 .64 , –18.81

It appears that we were a day early looking for a retracement for April.

• Although this pattern’s longer term view is for more upside, it is likely that April is nearing a resting place.

• There is strong moving average resistance found at -17.85 to -17.60 on the daily chart.

• This is likely April will retrace from that level.

• She will be confirmed with a break of the minor downside pivot of -18.60. However, the key is a daily settle below -19.00. That will make the chart appear neutral.

• The increase in flow from the Buzzard field has kept pressure on the Brent side of the arb. The return to operation of COP’s Sweeny Refinery has kept the WTI portion of the arb firm.

• This will be a two way market for Tuesday.

RBOB

RBOB	S2	S1	CLOSE	R1	R2	TREND
DAILY	30820	31175	31524	31995	32525	CONGEST
WEEKLY	29500	31170	32035	33160	34410	UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 3.0718, 2.9317 , 2.8204

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2 .8343 , 2.9494 , 2.9083

Although the equities have their foot to the pedal, the rbob failed to pick up any strength from the charge.

• We need to remember that amount the EPA requires for ethanol blending cannot go up ad infinitum.

• While this does not dispel the immediate need, it does suggest that April got ahead of herself a bit.

• The restart of COP’s Sweeny refinery also put pressure on the front spread as well as the flat price.

• With ten-cent ranges becoming the norm the game is getting expensive to play.

• It also leaves the pattern muddied as to the intent of the market.

• For Tuesday, April is seen moving lower to test the 3.1350 area. This will be signaled with a break of 3.1450.

• There is a potential for April to remove the Monday low of 3.1355 to see a drop to 3.12 to 3.1150.

• The minor upside pivot to a leg of strength is a break of 3.1750.

• This case will carry April up to 3.1950 to 3.20.

• This will be a volatile and choppy market.

ETHANOL

ETHANOL	S2	S1	CLOSE	R1	R2	TREND
DAILY	2490	2515	2544	2574	2590	UP
WEEKLY	2232	2320	2512	2640	2752	UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.399, 2.344 , 2.358

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.357 , 2.338 , 2.433

April saw five week highs Monday as domestic demand for corn showed a rise.

• April has now launched into a wave extension by settling above 2.50 for the second consecutive day.

• This is likely to eventually lead to the 2.64 area.

• She will have minor support at 2.52 to 2.515. The minor downside pivot is 2.505.

• There is key support at 2.49 that will preserve the bullishness of this pattern if not broken.

• Although April may start the day with a minor retracement, it is still a strong formation.

• There is likely to be a new high seen. This will initiate resistance at 2.57 to 2.575.

• The upside pivot is 2.59.

• As long as 2.49 is not busted by a daily settlement April is intact to see 2.64 or above.

DISTILLATE

HEAT	S2	S1	CLOSE	R1	R2	TREND
DAILY	29850	29295	29691	29850	30475	CONGEST LOWER
WEEKLY	27915	28935	29749	31225	32675	UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 3.0798 , 3.0776 , 3.0524

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 3.0480 , 3.0292, 3.0195

April has a shelf of resistance that has proven impenetrable.

• This is found on the hourly chart between 2.9820 and 2.9855.

• Here is the wall the bulls must overcome to show a strengthening pattern.

• However, our look for Tuesday is that April will fail in this regard.

• It is seen falling to 2.93 to 2.9250 with a break of the minor downside pivot of 2.9480 is posted.

• The key downside pivot is 2.9850. This is a must hold for the bulls on a daily settlement basis.

• April’s topside minor pivot is 2.9860. The key upside pivot is 3.0025.

• In the event that the latter level is busted a rise to 3.0450 to 3.05 will be eyed.

• We are neutral of this pattern for Tuesday.

NATGAS

NATGAS	S2	S1	CLOSE	R1	R2	TREND
DAILY	3470	3515	3649	3720	3835	UP
WEEKLY	3180	3320	3629	3720	3935	PEAK

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 3.381 , 3.366 , 3.404

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 3.465 , 2.914 , 3.332

The outlook for Monday was for April to move higher to see the 3.72 level.

• While April did not make that level Monday, it did settle above the key upside pivot of 3.645.

• This is a signal that more upside is to come despite the fact that April is up 5.2% since Thursday of last week.

• We continue to see 3.72 to 3.74 as an important objective for this formation.

• The upside pivot is 3.75. A daily settle above this level will argue for a test of 3.93 if not slightly higher.

• If the 4.00 area is seen again it will be a great opportunity to sell May or June for the shoulder months.

• April will have initial support at 3.59, but the pivot to watch is 3.565.

• Once through this level April is signaling a top to the pattern. and a test of the 100 DMA at 3.47.

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