Daily Energy Technical Report - 3.11.13

MrTopStep.com

However, as of Friday the cash markets on the Gulf Coast have not responded in kind.

WTI
WTI S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY 8944 9083 9195 9267 9380 UP
WEEKLY 8187 8944 9195 9824 10350 UP

 Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 93.78, 93.91 , 90.83

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 90 .78 , 93.50 , 94 .32

The spreads are moving towards less contango and the momentum has been oversold.

  • The model we have pictured below shows the completed wave pattern down to the 89.33 level. We are pleased to have called that the low of last week as it was being formed.
  • This pattern will stretch out to the 93.80 to 94.00 zone this week.
  • We are a buyer of the dip. A strengthening market will not remove the minor downside  pivot of 90.80. Our protective stop placed below the minor pivot. We will attempt the position at the 91.00 area.
  • April will have an initial target of 92.60 to 92.80.
  • Her upside continuation pivot to the advance is found at 93.11.
  • Busting that level will April a shove to 93.80 to 94.00 where there is strong resistance in place.
  • The key downside pivot to test the recent low is a break of 90.20.

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CRUDE 031113

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crude wkly 031113

BRENT
BRENT S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY 10745 10996 11085 11223 11325 UP
WEEKLY 9647 10745 11085 11890 12017 UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 114.49 , 113.27 , 111.45

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 111.35 , 112 .08 , 111.89

The schematic below labels the move down from 119.17 complete.

  • This model suggests that a correction of the move down from the summit to last week’s low will ensue.
  • We are in a buy the dip mode early in the week.
  • April is to find support at the 110.30 to 110.10 zone. The minor downside pivot is 109.75.
  • The key downside pivot of 109.14 is seen holding for the early part of the week.
  • The initial objective for the correction is the upside pivot of 112.25. Breaking through that level will confirm a short-term bottom.
  • Once through the pivot April will run to 113.00 to 113.25.
  • Our desire to be long of this market will be fulfilled with a probe at the 110.10 level. The protective stop below 109.75.

 

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BRENT 031113

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brent wkly 031113

WTI-BRENT
WTI-BRENT S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY -2030 -1956 -1890 -1820 -1783 CONGEST LOWER
WEEKLY -2270 -2045 –1890 –1542 -1325 UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: -20.05 , -19.85 , -20.33

Weekly Moving Averages: 55, 100, & 200: - 19 .33 , - 20 .64 , –18.81

On the news that Valero was to ship oil from Alberta by train to the West Coast refineries helped moved the arb well above -19.00.

  • However, it appears that this leg of the recovery has run its course for the very short-term.
  • This is likely to lead to a minor correction of the move ups from -21.00.
  • April is seen with initial support at -19.50 to -19.65. The minor downside pivot is -19.85.
  • Although the key downside pivot to the formation is -21.00, it is probable that trend support at -20.30 will hold.
  • The key upside pivot to this model is a daily settle above -18.50. However, a daily settle above the key level will signal a continued ascent. It is a charge to the -16.20 area that is called for in that event.
  • This will be a two way market for Monday. Buy the dips; sell the rips.

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WTI-BRENT 031113

 

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WTI-BRENT WKLY 031113

RBOB
RBOB S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY 31595 31790 32035 32485 32725 UP
WEEKLY 29500 31170 32035 33160 34410 UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 3.0719, 2.9317 , 2.8204

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2 .8343 , 2.9494 , 2.9083

The inability to secure RINS has moved this pattern into a very bullish light.

  • Since hitting last week’s low at 3.0590, April has developed a sub-divided wave structure that has much higher prices written upon it.
  • We are in a buy the dip mode. It is likely to be shallow at that, however.
  • The initial support level for April is 3.18 to 3.1750. The minor downside pivot is 3.1650. We endeavor to purchase April at 3.1725.
  • April’s intraday chart key downside pivot is 3.1520.
  • Nevertheless, She is seen jumping to the 3.2450 to 3.25 zone with a break of 3.2150 on a five minute basis.
  • Although the price is slated for higher levels, we need to remember this will be a large drag on the economy with a sustained retail level above 3.80/gal.

 

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MOGAS 031113

 

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mogas wkly 031113

ETHANOL
ETHANOL S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY 2455 2480 2512 2526 2590 UP
WEEKLY 2232 2320 2512 2640 2752 UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.393, 2.339 , 2.356

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.357 , 2.338 , 2.433

The WASDE Report was strongly supportive of corn as ending supplies are seen to be less than previously stated.

  • This enabled April to push through the key upside  pivot at 2.49 Friday.
  • This is a very strong showing for April. It signals that the ascent is likely to continue for the intermediate term.
  • The model depicted below points to a surge to the 3.64 area in the upcoming week.
  • April is seen with initial support at 2.485 to 2.48.
  • The minor downside pivot is 2.47.
  • Although it is probable that the 2.48 remains intact, the key downside pivot is 2.455.
  • As long as that level is not settled below on a daily basis April is intact to move higher.
  • She will have minor resistance at 2.525 to 2.53.
  • The extension pivot s 2.54. A daily settle above this level gives the outlook for 2.64 added credence.

 

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ETHANOL 031113

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ethanol wkly 031113

DISTILLATE
HEAT S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY 29380 29600 29749 30025 30475 UP
WEEKLY 27915 28935 29749 31225 32675 UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 3.0923 , 3.0750 , 3.0547

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 3.0480 , 3.0292, 3.0195

Friday’s big surprise on the jobs front is helping April climb the wall of worry.

  • The more people back to work the more diesel that will be required to carry goods.
  • Having fallen more than thirty-cents per gallon from its high a retracement is in order.
  • We see April finding initial support at 2.9650 to 2.96. Admittedly this is an area that if held signals a strengthening market.
  • It has a minor downside pivot of 2.9550.
  • The key pattern support for the intraday chart is 2.94 to 2.9350. This carries a pivot of 2.93.
  • The key downside pivot to the rebound staying intact is 2.9030.
  • We are a buyer of the dip at the 2.96 level with a protective stop below 2.9550.
  • April will rise to meet the key upside pivot with a break of 2.9860.
  • Here the prize is the key upside pivot of 3.0025.
  • A daily settle above that level will demonstrate enough momentum to carry her to the 3.0450 to 3.05 zone.

 

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HEAT 031113

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heat wkly 031113

NATGAS
NATGAS S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY 3485 3565 3629 3465 3720 PEAK
WEEKLY 3180 3320 3629 3720 3935 PEAK

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 3.368 , 3.650 , 3.466

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 3.465 , 2.914 , 3.332

The bulls are pushing bears to cover on the outlook for colder weather for the rest of March.

  • We are not meteorologists, but it does appear that Heating Degree Days are going to be waning quickly.
  • Granted year on year there will be less gas in storage, but will it be sufficient to pare down supplies sufficiently is the question.
  • Based on the technical formation there may be a jump to 3.72 to 3.75 if those of bovine instincts push above 3.645.
  • However, in the New York City area this weekend temps are in the high 50′s to low 60′s.
  • We do not see the pattern supporting high prices for very long.
  • At a minimum a retracement from the Friday high is seen.
  • This will give April the look at the minor downside pivot of 3.565.
  • Once busted, April is signaling a short-term top if not something more significant.
  • In keeping with the more conservative outlook April will then slip to trend support at 3.485.
  • We are a seller of the rally. This is ideally at 3.71 with a protective stop above 3.74.

 

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NAT 031113

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NAT WKLY 031113

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