The Daily Energy Technical Report 6.11.13

MrTopStep.com

Although the index rose, it was 0.3% lower than expectations. Their importation of base metals is also down nearly 30% on average.

The S&P raised its outlook on the US credit rating from negative to stable. They noted the strength of the US economy, as well as the concomitant strength of the dollar.

The US is close to making a decision to arm the Syrian rebels. The imminency of the move is underscored by Secretary of State, John Kerry, canceling a trip to the Middle East. He will remain at home to debate the point with the President’s security council.

Volume was very light on Monday in all the markets. It seems as though the summer doldrums are now upon us.

WTI
WTI S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY 9372 9477 9577 9639 9763 CONGEST HIGHER
WEEKLY 8714 9182 9603 9980 10300 UP

 Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 94.63, 93.76 , 94.06

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 94.08 , 91.29 , 93 .44

The key upside pivot to this formation is the neckline of the head & shoulders bottom.

  • This cuts the chart Tuesday at 97.00.
  • The minor pivot that will signal the trip to that level is underway is a break of 96.40.
  • In this event July will then skip to the 97.50 to 97.65 area on an intraday basis.
  • However, a daily settle above 97.00 will open the way for a far more material jump.
  • In that case a rise to 99.75 to 100.00 is probable.
  • A strengthening market will hold 95.60, which is the minor downside pivot.
  • The key pivot to the intraday chart is 95.15.
  • The removal of this mark will seek 94.80 to 94.65.
  • Our overall view of the pattern is that Monday’s price action was a consolidation in an otherwise bullish pattern.
  • Perhaps the arming of the Syrian rebels if seen will constitute enough motivation for the bulls to press the market higher.
  • We are a cautious buyer of the dip. This will be at the 94.80 area if seen. We will use a stop below 94.50 as protection.
  • Otherwise we will stand aside and let the pattern develop.

 

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CRUDE 061113

 

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CRUDE WKLY 061013

BRENT
BRENT S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY 10170 10281 10395 10542 10615 CONGEST
WEEKLY 9357 10013 10456 10855 11060 UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 103.15 , 103.79 , 108.05

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 108.18 , 108 .11, 110.59

July found support at our targeted area for Monday.

  • However, it lacked the momentum to follow though to the upside.
  • This market has a different looking pattern than that of WTI.
  • It is appearing as if there is a short-term top to the the configuration at 105.01.
  • This is borne out by the look of the arb as well.
  • However, the key pivot to the intraday chart is 102.80.
  • That will render a move higher in the immediate term moot.
  • For a sign of upside momentum building will require July to bust 104.50.
  • The key upside pivot is 105.45.
  • We are neutral of this market for Tuesday.
  • It could very well be that the summer doldrums are here early.

 

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BRENT 061113

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BRENT WKLY 061013

WTI-BRENT
WTI-BRENT S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY -916 -861 -818 -700 -669 UP
WEEKLY -1355 -1000 -853 -698 -379 UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: -9.02 , -8.99 , -8.71

Weekly Moving Averages: 55, 100, & 200: -10.25 , -14.14 , –17.37

July was seen with support at the -8.60 level for Monday and our buy program was elected.

  • July is nearing a top to this leg, which is not surprising since Brent goes off the board this week.
  • However, The upside objective is yet to be reached.
  • The immediate target is -7.50 to -7.40.The  pivot is -7.35.
  • The key upside pivot that we see tested is -7.00.
  • It will take a fifteen-minute settle above this level for an extended wave higher.
  • In this event the target will be -6.70.
  • This will be two way action for Tuesday.
  • The early move should be to the upside.
  • The minor pivot to this model is -8.60.
  • We will sell the -7.00 level with a stop above -6.70.
  • This is likely to be a peak to the formation.

 

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wti-brent 061113

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wti-brent wkly 060313

RBOB
RBOB S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY 27945 28190 28481 28700 29275 CONGEST LOWER
WEEKLY 26880 27465 28715 29770 30415 UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.8409, 2.8610 , 2.9362

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.9534 , 2.8748 , 2.8846

It appears July has completed a leg to the upside on Friday and is now correcting the move higher.

  • It is likely that July consolidates lower Tuesday, but a material move to the downside is unlikely.
  • Rather a back and fill to the 2.8250 to 2.82 area is more probable.
  • The minor pivot is 2.8150.
  • Falling below that mark will usher in a drop to 2.7950 to 2.79.
  • July will have minor resistance at 2.87 to 2.8750. The upside pivot is 2.8875. This is also the key pivot to the intraday pattern.
  • A daily settle above that mark will eye the key upside pivot to the intermediate term outlook at 2.9275.
  • We are neutral of this market for Tuesday.

 

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MOGAS 061113

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MOGAS WKLY 061013

ETHANOL
ETHANOL S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY 2420 2450 2479 2509 2535 DOWN
WEEKLY 2365 2430 2506 2650 2750 DOWN

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.635, 2.548 , 2.497

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.500 , 2.414 , 2.424

July registered a key reversal to the downside Monday.

  • This is circled in red on the chart below.
  • While not technically a reversal since the market is already trending lower, it is nonetheless an important indication that softer prices are probable.
  • The rain in the plains is not likely to stay the farmer from their appointed rounds. At least for Tuesday as it appears.
  • July hit our resistance objective Monday at 2.53.
  • The following sell off broke the minor pivot.
  • This is likely to mean that July will test the key pivot at 2.45 for Tuesday.
  • This is an important level for the bulls to protect.,
  • A daily settle below that mark will signal a drop to 2.39.
  • An intraday break of the pivot will eye 2.425 to 2.42.
  • We are in a sell the rally mode. There will be initial resistance at 2.505 to 2.51. The pivot is 2.52.
  • The key upside pivot to the intraday chart is 2.535.

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ETHANOL 061113

 

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ETHANOL WKLY 061013

DISTILLATE
HEAT S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY 28220 28480 28838 29135 29640 CONGEST LOWER
WEEKLY 27255 27665 28931 29995 30540 UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.8801 , 2.8877 , 2.9652

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.9700 , 2.9699 , 3.0030

While we waxed bullishly of this market, but Monday’s price action was less than stellar.

  • Although the short-term picture appears favorable, July is likely to retrace more than Monday’s slim pullback.
  • This suggests that July will test the minor downside pivot of 2.8480.
  • The short-term view (1-2 days) incorporates this correction as a buying opportunity.
  • However, the value zone will be closer to 2.8250 to 2.82.
  • July has a pivot of 2.81 in this instance.
  • Bulls will need to traverse 2.9160 to start the stampede. However, there is trend resistance just before at 2.9130. This will be a formidable feat if accomplished.
  • For the record we do not think this will be Tuesday.
  • Nevertheless, we will look to buy July at 2.82 with a protective stop placed below 2.81.
  • July will reassert strength with a break above 2.9035.

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HEAT 061113

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HEAT WKLY 061013


NATGAS
NATGAS S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY 3645 3747 3800 3865 3935 BOTTOM
WEEKLY 3385 3645 3828 4030 4350 DOWN

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 4.031 , 4.079 , 3.806

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 3.804 , 3.367, 3.264

July fell anew Monday as demand worries beset the bulls.

  • But July met some key technical support on the Monday low.
  • The red trend line was tagged.
  • So too the .618 retracement.
  • Although we cannot rule out a marginal new low, this pattern is nearing completion at least for a corrective rally.
  • However, to confirm a short-term bottom July must bust 2.87.
  • In so doing she will test the bottom of the first leg down at 3.935.
  • In terms of Elliott Wave Theory a daily settle above that level is significant.
  • To be clear we do not see that event for Tuesday.
  • A drop below 3.775 will nod towards 3.75 to 3.74.
  • This is an  important continuation chart pattern measure.
  • However, a break below 3.73 on a five-minute basis will signal another downturn and a likely 3.64 target.
  • We are a cautious buyer at 3.78. The protective stop below 3.74.

 

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NAT 061113

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