The Daily Energy Technical Report 6.14.13

European throughput to refineries is at its lowest point in several years, and this has helped the strength of diesel. In addition to the Rotterdam refinery issues, this supported gasoil and its American cousin 2oil. Brent oil was also stronger on supply concerns due to maintenance in the North Sea.

Arming the Syrian rebels is still an issue for the oil markets. The West has yet to agree on any plan.

Thursday’s most striking feature was the risk markets shrugging off the Asian meltdown. This surprised us since we expected margin calls for liquidation. However, it never developed. A market that ignores bearish news is bullish by definition. Jobless claims and retail sales also aided in the recovery process. It sparked a rally in equities, which spilled over into Crude.

In late news Thursday, Jon Hilsenrath of the WSJ said that Fed Chairman Bernanke would push back on the raising of interest rates. We suspect that the wild swings in Japan may have prompted him to issue that message. It may take some pressure off the large hedge funds. It is also the probable reason why the margin selling did not hit the market Thursday. The smart money already knew.

DAILY 9514 9620 9669 9823 9984 UP
WEEKLY 8714 9182 9603 9980 10300 UP

 Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 94.74, 93.81 , 94.09

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 94.08 , 91.29 , 93 .44

Although our first support level on Thursday was 95.00, we thought that margin selling would have breached that mark.

  • As it turned out the hedge funds that were caught in Japan seemed to weather the storm.
  • A late day announcement that the Fed would taper the talk about tapering spurred a sharp rally in the risk markets.
  • The bulls are in charge and they will want to move July above 97.20 to touch off stops.
  • We are a cautious buyer of the dip. There  will be support at 96.35 to 96.20. The minor pivot is 95.85.
  • We will buy the 96.25 level with a stop below 96.00.Usually when a market breaks the round number it will hold that level on the first pass.
  • As we have been saying for a few days now, there is the massive head & shoulders bottom that is looming above the market.
  • July may a charge for the stops late in the day, but failed to get above 97.00.
  • As long as July holds 96.20, a rise to 98.00 to 98.20 will be witnessed.
  • The key pivot is 95.00.


View gallery


CRUDE 061413


View gallery



DAILY 10310 10423 10425/10495 10624 10721 UP
WEEKLY 9357 10013 10456 10855 11060 UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 103.23 , 103.49 , 107.79

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 108.18 , 108 .11, 110.59

August was strong Thursday on the back of North Sea maintenance and Euro oil stocks being low.

  • This enabled August to rise above trend resistance at 104.65 and settle above that mark.
  • That suggests that Aug will experience another run to the upside for Friday.
  • The upside extension pivot is a five-minute settle above 105.15.
  • In this event Aug will search out the 100  DMA at 106.24.
  • However, there is likely to be minor resistance ahead of that level at 105.80.
  • But with the rekindled hope of no tapering in the intermediate term, the bulls will press their drive to higher levels.
  • We are a buyer of the dip.
  • Auggie will have initial support at 104.40 to 104.25. The minor pivot is 104.00. We will attempt our trade at 104.30.
  • The key downside pivot to the intraday chart is 103.10.


View gallery


brent 061413

View gallery



DAILY -940 -867 -803 -740 -669 CONGEST LOWER
WEEKLY -1355 -1000 -853 -698 -379 UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: -7.85 , -8.18 , -8.20

Weekly Moving Averages: 55, 100, & 200: -10.25 , -14.14 , –17.37

We forecast that July would congest lower for Thursday, which it did.

  • We have now switched to August for comment and pricing.
  • The chart below labels the move to Thursday’s high of -7.34 as an a-b-c correction.
  • This will probably mean that Aug will congest lower for Friday.
  • There is a downside  pivot at -8.20.
  • If this level is punctured on a fifteen-minute basis, Aug will fall to -8.60 to -8.70.
  • The extension pivot is -8.76.
  • August’s key downside pivot of -9.40 is not likely to be threatened.
  • Resistance is noted at -7.60 to -7.40.
  • We are a seller of the rally at -7.50 with a protective stop above -7.30.


View gallery


wti-brent 061413

View gallery


wti-brent wkly 060313

DAILY 28000 28415 28613 28815 29355 UP
WEEKLY 26880 27465 28715 29770 30415 UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.8396, 2.8475 , 2.9383

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.9534 , 2.8748 , 2.8846

July staged a key reversal to the upside Thursday.

  • It appears that the bears will be eating crow for dinner of which we were one.
  • The operative word in that sentence is were.
  • July has proven itself for more upside to follow.
  • There will be support at 2.8450 to 2.84.
  • The minor downside pivot is 2.83.
  • The key downside pivot is 2.7980.
  • We are a buyer of the dip. This is at the 2.840 level. It is from this level that July broke the intraday resistance to run stops.
  • July will have initial resistance at 2.88 to 2.8850.
  • The pivot is 2.89.
  • Rising above that market will likely trip more stops. This will push July to the 2.93 to 2.9350 area where the 100 DMA resides.


View gallery


MOGAS 061413

View gallery



DAILY 2430 2446 2461 2480 2526 UP
WEEKLY 2365 2430 2506 2650 2750 DOWN

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.606, 2.543 , 2.500

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.500 , 2.414 , 2.424

While we were looking for July to congest higher Thursday, it was stronger than anticipated.

  • The model labeled below shows a completed five wave move down.
  • This will mean that July will correct the move from 2.60 to 2.407.
  • The first leg of the corrective process was seen Thursday.
  • It is likely that July retraces from the 2.47 level to see initial support at 2.45 to 2.445.
  • The minor pivot is 2.44. The key pivot is 2.407.
  • We are in a buy the dip mode.
  • July will have an upside pivot to this model at 2.48.
  • Busting that level on a fifteen minute basis will signal a continued rise to 2.525 to 2.53.

View gallery


ethanol 061413


View gallery



DAILY 28740 29185 29395 29615 29875 UP
WEEKLY 27255 27665 28931 29995 30540 UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.8809 , 2.8885 , 2.9614

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.9700 , 2.9699 , 3.0030

Very low refinery throughput in Europe combined with the Rotterdam refinery down has kept July on its seasonal trend for higher prices until the Fourth of July.

  • It appears that July has more upside to come Friday.
  • There is likely to be a marginal retrace for the early session Friday.
  • But we are in a buy the dip mode.
  • This will be tackling support at 2.92 to 2.9150 for the trade.
  • The downside pivot is 2.9040. Our stop will be placed below that level.
  • July’s upside target is the 100 DMA  at 2.9615.
  • While a daily settle above that price will be a strong indicator for next week, an intraday break of the moving average will tag 2.9850 to 2.99.
  • With the hope for continued bond buying from the Fed, the money will be betting on a stronger recovery and more demand for the fuel.

View gallery


heat 061413

View gallery


HEAT WKLY 061013

DAILY 3645 3780 3814 3870 3960 CONGEST
WEEKLY 3385 3645 3828 4030 4350 DOWN

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 4.006 , 4.071 , 3.814

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 3.804 , 3.367, 3.264

We missed our count for Thursday thinking that there would be a new low to follow.

  • But the inventory came in better than expected.
  • Moreover, there was a promise from the new Energy Sect. that a decision on the exportation of natural gas would be made this year.
  • This too help support the market.
  • In actuality, we did have a completed move to the 3.71 area.
  • However, July is likely to congest for Friday.
  • She will have minor support at 3.795 to 3.78.
  • The pivot is 3.755 and the key pivot is 3.70.
  • Although we cannot rule out a new low, that is not likely to be Friday.
  • However, if the pivot at 3.70 is removed the support comes in at 3.655 to 3.63.


View gallery


nat 061413



View Comments (0)

Recommended for You

  • Tycoon buys 30 Rolls-Royces for Macau hotel

    A Hong Kong tycoon has placed the biggest ever order for Rolls-Royce cars, agreeing to buy 30 Phantoms to chauffeur guests at a luxury resort he's building in the global gambling capital of Macau. Stephen Hung's $20 million purchase surpasses the 14 Phantoms bought by Hong Kong's Peninsula Hotel in…

    Associated Press
  • The New 2015 Sonata®: A Step Above the Competition

    There's a Sonata® that's perfect for you, and this is your chance to build it! Visit the Hyundai® Official Site to customize your 2015 Sonata® today!

  • Before You Buy Alibaba, Check Out 4 Top China Stocks

    Before You Buy Alibaba, Check Out 4 Top China Stocks While investors gear up for Alibaba Group 's (BABA) hotly anticipated initial public offering, don't forget about other Chinese stocks that are worth keeping an eye on. Today's Young Guns Screen of

    Investor's Business Daily
  • Only 4 states will see cuts to food stamps

    Cuts to the nation's food stamp program enacted this year are only affecting four states, far from the sweeping overhaul that Republicans had pushed, an Associated Press review has found. As a result, it's unclear whether the law will realize the estimated $8.6 billion in savings over 10 years that…

    Associated Press
  • "The Retiree Next Door": How successful retirees stretch their savings

    "The Retiree Next Door": How successful retirees stretch their savingsBy the time she hit her late 40s, Toni Eugenia wasn’t sure she would ever be able to retire. Eugenia, 56, a pharmacy technician who lived in Houston, was nearly $200,000 in debt and

    Yahoo Finance
  • SHOE COMPANY: Our CEO Just Disappeared And Most Of The Money Is Gone

    "and like that: he's gone." This is an actual headline from a company press release: "CEO and COO disappeared, most of the company's cash missing." (Via FastFT) In a statement, German-based shoe company Ultrasonic said its CFO,  Chi Kwong Clifford Chan, has been unable to reach the company's CEO,…

    Business Insider
  • Apple to unveil new iPads, operating system on Oct. 21 : report

    The company plans to unveil the sixth generation of its iPad and the third edition of the iPad mini, as well as its operating system OS X Yosemite, which has undergone a complete visual overhaul, the Internet news website said. Trudy Muller, a spokeswoman for Apple, declined to comment. The iPad is…

  • Margaritaville casino owners seek bankruptcy

    The owner of Biloxi's Margaritaville casino has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Tuesday, only hours before a hearing where the landlord aimed to seize the property. The filing by MVB Holding LLC in U.S. Don Dornan, a lawyer for landlord Clay Point LLC, said the company had planned to ask…

    Associated Press
  • Hyundai Elantra: Features & Benefits Come Standard

    More interior space, alloy wheels standard, 145 HP. Explore all the features and benefits of the Elantra at the Hyundai Official Site.

  • Embraer to sell 50 E-175 jets to Republic in $2.1 billion deal

    Brazil's Embraer SA, the world's third largest commercial planemaker, said on Wednesday it booked a firm order from U.S. The deal, which will be included in Embraer's order book for the third quarter, is valued at $2.1 billion, the planemaker said in a securities filing. The planes will be operated…

  • Here's What Mark Cuban Wishes He Knew About Money In His 20s

    Cuban is the owner of the Dallas Mavericks basketball team. Billionaire investor and entrepreneur Mark Cuban is generous with his advice. When we asked him what he wishes he'd known about money in his 20s, he said:

    Business Insider
  • Play

    Citi, Bank of America Offer Discounted Mortgages

    Citigroup and Bank of America will offer mortgages at discounted interest rates to help borrowers with low incomes or subprime credit. AnnaMaria Andriotis joins MoneyBeat. Photo: Getty.

    WSJ Live
  • Gold loses luster on Fed; Barclays cuts forecast

    Barclays cuts gold forecasts, sees increasingly bearish backdrop Bloomberg MA MB MC MD ME SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold prices dipped Wednesday on concerns about a stronger dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve policy statement and in response to Barclays lowering its gold forecast.

  • Play

    What the Fed Meeting Means for Bonds

    Janet Yellen & Co. are expected to hint at their timetable for raising interest rates. Here's how investors should prepare ahead of the meeting.

    WSJ Live
  • Billionaire Investor Says Chinese People Work Harder And Western Companies Could Face Deep Trouble After Alibaba IPO

    Michael Moritz, the chairman of VC firm Sequoia Capital, is a huge fan of Chinese internet companies and reiterated his enthusiasm for the Chinese market in an interview with The Wall Street Journal Wednesday. The billionaire investor described the Alibaba IPO as a “major landmark event” that is as…

    Business Insider
  • $40-Off Limited Time Offer From Norton

    Award-winning PC protection that doesn't slow you down. Easy installation & money-back guarantee. Download today with our $40-off limited time offer.

    AdChoicesNorton by SymantecSponsored
  • Top Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades: AEP, BHP, GE, Incyte, 3M, Tyco, Under Armour and More

    Top Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades: AEP, BHP, GE, Incyte, 3M, Tyco, Under Armour and More Stocks were firm on Wednesday morning ahead of the FOMC meeting outcome. Tuesday’s rally may have sparked higher interest again, and investors are looking for bargains

    24/7 Wall St.
  • Fed renews zero rate pledge, but hints at steeper rate hike path

    The Federal Reserve on Wednesday renewed its pledge to keep interest rates near zero for a "considerable time," but also indicated it could raise borrowing costs faster than expected when it starts moving. In a statement after a two-day meeting of its policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee,…

  • Boeing may have outfoxed Musk, but it could have bigger problems

    Elon Musk is arguably one of the greatest entrepreneurial minds of the 21st Century, but he was outsized an old school aerospace giant. Boeing won the bulk of NASA’s contract for a space taxi.  One of the other companies vying for the deal is SpaceX, the company headed by Tesla’s Musk, will get a…

    Talking Numbers
  • The Government Keeps Helping People Buy Failing Cold Stone Creamerys

    Would you loan someone money to buy a Cold Stone Creamery franchise if you knew that more than a quarter of those loans default? Over the last decade, franchisees in the Cold Stone Creamery ice cream chain defaulted on 29 percent of working-capital loans backed by the government, costing taxpayers…

  • Romney-Sized IRAs Scrutinized as Government Studies Taxes

    The preliminary report attaches data to an issue that drew attention during the 2012 presidential campaign, when Republican nominee Mitt Romney reported an IRA worth $20 million to $102 million. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden said many of these "massive" accounts come from deals…

  • Russian billionaire placed under house arrest

    A billionaire Russian tycoon was placed under house arrest Tuesday in a money-laundering case that has drawn comparisons with a government crackdown on Russia's Yukos oil company more than a decade ago. The Investigative Committee, Russia's top investigative agency, said that Vladimir Yevtushenkov,…

    Associated Press
  • Four Things That Can Send Your Resume to the Trash

    We asked recruiting managers and career experts about resume errors that cause them to crumple and toss a resume - their answers may surprise you.

  • Facebook Is Hiding Important Information From Investors

    Facebook Is Hiding Important Information From Investors On July 23, when Facebook reported its earnings for the second quarter, the company stunned everyone. Revenues were $2.68 billion, up 67% from the same quarter during the year

    Business Insider