The Daily Energy Technical Report 7.16.13

MrTopStep.com

Retail sales in the US rose 0.4% in June, but most of that was due to higher priced gasoline and sales of cars. It was lower than the Street was looking for; expectations called for a growth of 0.6%.

Egyptians turned their nose to the US envoy on his first official visit. Both sides of the political spectrum felt that he, and the rest of the administration, were complicit in the recent power change in the country.

It was an otherwise quiet day in the markets.

WTI
WTI S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY 10431 10552 10632 10799 10879 UP
WEEKLY 9746 10180 10595 10819 11288 PEAK

 Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 99.85, 96.79 , 94.84

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 94.87 , 92.66 , 93 .76

The model below shows August in a large degree wave 4 or consolidation before the ultimate high is placed.

  • This larger degree outlook will fall apart with a break of the key pivot of 104.30.
  • However, a strengthening market will gain momentum if August holds 105.50.
  • In this event a rise above 106.75 will suggest a break of 107.45.
  • This will set up an immediate objective of 107.95 to 108.10.
  • But the true target for this advance is 108.75 to 108.90.
  • We are a buyer of the dip at 105.75 with a risk market of 105.45.
  • This trade is valid as long as August has not busted the 106.75 level before being elected.
  • A cut back on OPEC production and Seaway is not going to be off line for ever, is it?

 

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crude 071613

 

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CRUDE WKLY 071513

BRENT
BRENT S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY 10559 10679 10909/10808 10903 11000 UP
WEEKLY 10039 10552 10881 11179 11493 PEAK

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 105.01 , 104.00 , 105.34

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 105.65 , 108 .69, 110.14

Although the continuation chart is at the top of its channel, it is actually poking just above it as we write.

  • But our interest has moved on to Sept.
  • The lower OPEC output via Iraq and Libya aids in support of this market.
  • It appears to have more upside ahead especially when one takes into consideration of the premium August commands over Sept.
  • While a strengthening market will hold 107.50 to 107.30, the minor pivot is 107.00 and the key downside pivot to the intraday chart is 106.75.
  • As long as the key pivot remains unscathed, a jump to 109.00 is forecast.
  • The extension pivot is 109.30. This will carry at 110.00 target.
  • We view this as a two-way market for Tuesday,.
  • Sept appears to be a buy at 107.30 with a downside stop placed below 107.00. That is our gambit.
  • We will also look to sell the 109.00 area on the first pass. That has the pivot of 109.30.

 

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brent 071613

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BRENT WKLY 071513

WTI-BRENT
WTI-BRENT S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY -340 -289 -216 -140 -50 UP
WEEKLY -1098 -689 -286 -145 -54 PEAK

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: -2.75, -3.23 , -4.62

Weekly Moving Averages: 55, 100, & 200: -7.37 , -10.80 , –15.83

August has held the -3.20 area and is now looking to move higher.

  • But our attention has turned to September.
  • Sept has already removed its minor upside pivot at -2.30.
  • This signals a probable climb to -1.50 to -1.40.
  • However, Sept will extend higher with a break of -1.40 on a fifteen-minute basis.
  • In this event a run for -.50 is seen.
  • For the longer term view though we do feel a rise above level will be in the cards in the not too distant future.
  • We are a buyer of the dip. This will be at the -2.30 with a protective stop below -2.60.
  • The key downside pivot to a new leg lower is penetration of -2.90 on a fifteen-minute basis.

 

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WTI-BRENT 071613

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wti-brent wkly 071513

RBOB
RBOB S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY 30395 30890 31029 31360 31690 PEAK
WEEKLY 28625 30215 31175 32285 34260 PEAK

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.8589, 2.8450 , 2.9061

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.9294 , 2.8913 , 2.8788

Our model below shows that August still carries a probable punch to the upside before the wave is complete.

  • While this has been a monstrous run to the upside, it does appear that the price action Monday was mere consolidation.
  • This model suggests a move back to test the Friday high of 3.1455.
  • There will be minor resistance at 3.1350 to 3.14, but once through 3.1450 August will eye 3.1650 to 3.170.
  • We see the next probe higher as likely to complete the more than forty-cent run up from its low.
  • This will be a two way market for Tuesday, but one which should have support early in the day.
  • We look to buy the dip ideally at 3.0950 to 3.09. The minor pivot is 3.0850. This trade is valid as long as August does not break 3.14 before moving lower. In that case the trade is canceled.
  • The key downside pivot to the bullish case is a break of 3.07.

 

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mogas 071613

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MOGAS WKLY 071513

ETHANOL
ETHANOL S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY 2457 2480 2491 2520 2535 UP
WEEKLY 2300 2368 249 2580 2655 UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.444, 2.544 , 2.511

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.513 , 2.451 , 2.404

We had thought that August would congest lower to begin the week. WRONG!

  • Tight supplies for old crop corn has kept August bid.
  • so too has the strength in rbob.
  • it appears that August does have higher to go as well.
  • It will have initial support at 2.485 to 2.48.
  • The minor pivot is 2.47.
  • Key support is 2.455 to 2.45 with a downside pivot of 2.440.
  • We are a buyer of the dip.
  • The outlook is for August to jump to the minor upside pivot of 2.52.
  • If it is able to clear that hurdle the next large one to cross is 2.535.
  • That pivot requires a daily settle above the mark to warrant further extension.

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ethanol 071613

 

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ethanol wkly 071513

DISTILLATE
HEAT S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY 29575 29840 30261 30450 30750 PEAK
WEEKLY 28225 29580 30294 30600 31044 PEAK

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.9352 , 2.9056 , 2.9139

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.9224 , 2.9955 , 2 .9983

The forecast is for higher prices…just barely.

  • By that we mean there is not much left to the pattern before a top is seen.
  • The labeled chart below has four of the requisite five waves complete.
  • The final thrust will be signaled with a break of 3.0375.
  • This may only yield a marginal new high. This is likely to be at 3.0450 to 3.05.
  • However with a pick up in momentum August may address the key pivot at 3.07 to 3.0750.
  • the minor downside pivot to this view is 3.0150.
  • Below there and a drop to the key downside pivot of 2.9840 will be challenged.
  • A break of this mark will suggest the pattern is finished.
  • We will look to be a seller of the strong rally. This will be at the 3.07 level with a protective stop above 3.08.

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HEAT 071613

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HEAT WKLY 071513

NATGAS
NATGAS S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY 3526 3610 3674 3807 3900 UP
WEEKLY 3050 3470 3644 4093 4368 UP

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 3.707 , 3.901 , 3.899

Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 3.880 , 3.477, 3.236

We were looking for August to weaken early this week and we were not disappointed.

  • Since it held the key downside pivot at 3.525 and zone 6 gas is trading substantially higher August quickly reversed thrusters off the low of the day.
  • It rose to the upside pivot at 3.69 and looks set to remove it for Tuesday.
  • This will set into motion a charge of the bulls to test 3.785 to 3.81.
  • The support for this model hits the chart at 3.61 to 3.59.
  • Its minor  pivot is 3.57; the key pivot is 3.525.
  • We are a buyer on the dip. This will be at 3.61 with a protective stop below 3.59.
  • However, in the event that August can better 3.81 we will be a seller of 3.90 on the first pass.
  • The model we offer will be the “C” leg of the labeled pattern below. This is a counter trend move, but one that is tradable.

 

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NAT 071613

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