Daily Observations: August 26, 2013

DailyFX

Current Positions:

- Flat

Pending Positions:

- Long AUDJPY at 89.30, Stop at 88.60, Target 1 at 90.00, Target 2 at 90.55

- Short GBPUSD at 1.5535, Stop at 1.5640, Target 1 at 1.5490, Target 2 at 1.5430, Target 3 at 1.5375

- Long USDJPY (1/2) at 98.35, Stop at 96.90, Target 1 at 99.20, Target 2 at 99.80

- Long USDJPY (1/2) at 97.55, Stop at 96.90, Target 1 at 98.00, Target 2 at 99.20, Target 3 at 99.80

I've spent the past few weeks scalping (albeit a frustrating pursuit sometimes) given the lull in market activity. It is summer, though, so the recent downturn in volatility shouldn't last beyond the next week or two with Labor Day around the corner.

There have been several developments - slowly moving - these past weeks that should lead to a more exciting September. Or 'Septaper.' Regardless; I'm looking for big moves out of the Japanese Yen.

To take advantage of what I think should be building Yen weakness, I'm looking to get long AUDJPY, GBPJPY, and USDJPY. To start, I'll be looking to buy USDJPY weakness in the wake of the weak US Durable Goods Orders (JUL) report. In case it doesn't develop, I'm looking long AUDJPY first as I think there's a good chance the turn in Chinese data leads to a period of relative calm in emerging market-linked assets.

While GBPJPY might be the best bet going forward of the three - the GBP has been the top performer in August and is riding an insanely hot streak of growth data - some profit taking may be necessary. Accordingly, I'll be looking for a shallow dip in GBPUSD before squaring up GBPJPY longs (later this week).

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--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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