Daily Observations: July 23, 2012


Current Positions:

- Closed remaining Short EURJPY from 98.55 at 95.60 for +295-pips

- Short AUDUSD from 1.0425, Stop at Breakeven

- Short GBPJPY from 123.63 (Closed 1/2 at 121.42 for +221-pips), Stop at 122.60 on remaining

- Long EURCHF from 1.2018

- Pending Long USDJPY >80.65

- AUDJPY: It appears that the pair has completed its Wave 4 rally off of the June 1 low at 74.45/50. The formation is neat considering the Wave 4 termination at 82.35/40 fell short of the Wave 1 termination at 82.48/50; this is imperative for the impulsive decline off the March highs. We now look to sell rallies for a test of the 2011 lows at 72.00/05. Near-term support comes in at 79.40/50 (former swing highs and lows) and then 78.35/50. Advances should be capped by 82.35/40; a break above this level signals a reversal and invalidates our bearish setup. Bias: bearish.

- AUDUSD: The pair is respecting an ascending channel off of the June 20 and July 5 highs, hitting resistance on Thursday/Friday leading to the sell-off today. The AUDUSD has hit interim support at 1.0270/80 (10-DMA, 200-DMA). A close below this confluence signals further losses to the 20-DMA and TL support (June 1 and July 12 lows) at 1.0225/35. Considering the strength of the Australian Dollar generally speaking, there is some ‘catch up’ warranted and a move to the downside could occur swiftly, as it has thus far on Monday. Bias: bearish.

- EURJPY:The pair has completed its measured Head & Shoulders move from 98.60 to 95.60 (from the 101.60 Head, 98.60 Neckline) and technically, the pair is oversold on short-term charts; we thus expect some consolidation if not a bounce before a further sell-off. Furthermore, with chatter from Japanese officials rising, we appear to have exited our long-JPY trade at an ideal time. We will look to resell on a rally but the trend is definitively down now that the pair has broken its lowest levels in over a decade. Bias: bearish.

- EURUSD: The pair traded into the 1.20xx figure earlier before rebounding back towards its opening levels today, but that means little in terms of the broader trend. In fact, the relative strength of the Euro compared to the commodity currencies was to be expected given the decoupling the past few weeks. We remain bearish as the pair has yet to complete its measured move from its May 1 decline, and over the coming six-weeks, we are looking for a sell-off into 1.1695-1.1875. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.2255/65 and 1.2330/50. Above that, interest lies 1.2400, and the crucial 1.2440/80 zone (Symmetrical Triangle support). Support comes in at 1.2115/20 (Bollinger Band) and 1.2080/85 (new July lows). We expect buying interest around the psychologically significant 1.2000 figure. Bias: bearish.

- GBPUSD: Little follow through on the breakout and failure to rise above the 200-DMA has prompted a reversal in the pair, which has sliced through its 10- and 20-DMAs will ease to the downside. Similarly, a steep rising trendline has now been broken, pointing to further losses. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.5570/85 (10-DMA, 20-DMA) and 1.5600/15 (50-DMA). Near-term support comes in at 1.5460/65 then 1.5390/1.5405 (monthly low, Bollinger Band). Bias: bearish.

- USDJPY: Is the USDJPY is working on an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern off of the June 1 low? It certainly appeared so for a while there; but the daily close below 78.60 suggests that the pair could trade as low as 78.15/25 before buying interest returns. Still, as long as the Head at 77.60/70 holds, the pattern remains technically valid. With the Head at 77.60/70, this suggests a measured move towards 83.60/70 once initiated. Near-term resistance comes in at 79.05/10 (200-DMA). Price action to remain range bound as long as advances are capped by 80.60/70. Bias: neutral

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--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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