Data Points

Henry Marchell
November 21, 2012

Jobless Claims
Released 11/21/2012 8:30 a.m. EST For the week of 11/17/2012
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
New Claims – Level 439 K 415 K 380 K to 500 K

Market Consensus before announcement
Initial jobless claims surged an incredible 78,000 for the week of November 10, to 439,000. Hurricane Sandy likely had impact. Adding to the pressure was a 6,000 upward revision to the prior week to 361,000. Hurricane Sandy effects add to uncertainty.

Stanton Analytics Chart 1
Stanton Analytics Chart 1

Market Consensus before announcement
The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index in early November was up 2.3 points to another recovery best of 84.9, compared to end of October 82.6. Confidence in current conditions was especially strong, at 91.3 versus October’s final reading of 88.1. But expectations were also on the rise, up nearly 2 points to 80.8. Both of these readings, like the composite index, were at recovery bests.

Leading Indicators
Released On 11/21/2012 10:00:00 AM For Oct, 2012
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Leading Indicators – M/M change 0.6 % 0.2 % 0.0 % to 0.6 %

Market Consensus before announcement
The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators jumped in September but with help from a lower baseline in August from a downward revision. The leading index increased 0.6 percent in September, following a 0.4 percent decline the prior month-originally down 0.1 percent. The stock market was a positive in the month as was the report’s component for credit conditions. A separate reading on interest rates remains a major contributor though its methodology, which tracks the spread between long and short rates, may need a tune up, as the component’s contribution to the index is waning, not increasing, as long rates are moving lower. A negative in the report was a decline in the ISM new orders component and a small drag from unemployment claims. Consumer expectations were also a negative for September.
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
The expectations for the DOE inventories are as follows: Crude: +800 kb; Mogas: +1.0 mb; Dist: -800kb
The API reported the following inventories: Crude: -1.9 mb; Mogas: -4.8 mb; Dist: -4.4 mb
EIA Natural Gas Report
12:00 PM ET
-27 BCF