Deutsche Bank Cuts LatAm Oil & Gas Forecasts, Petrobras A 'Top Pick'
Deutsche Bank issued a Latin American oil and gas industry update Tuesday amid new pricing forecasts which reduced target prices for the group by an average of 17 percent.
“The DB commodities team revised its oil price forecasts: reducing its Brent estimates to $72.5/bbl for 2015 (vs. its $88.75/bbl previous forecast), $77/bbl for 2016 ($90/bbl) and $84/bbl for 2017 ($90/bbl). Our long-term forecast of $90/bbl (in real terms) remains unchanged,” according to the analyst note.
Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (ADR) (NYSE: PBR) remained a top pick with a Buy rating.
Analyst Alexander Burgansky noted that “recent capacity additions and production gains support our forecast of five-year production CAGR of 10 percent” for PBR.
Burgansky believed that “operational performance should occupy center stage in Petrobras’ investment thesis as the market’s concerns with low domestic product prices subside, given lower oil prices and reduced need for product imports.
“We also like the stock’s defensive nature, given lower sensitivity to the oil price and its high dividend yield, particularly for preferred shares (6.4 percent based on current consensus forecasts).”
YPF SA (ADR) (NYSE: YPF) was downgraded from Buy to Hold and its price target was cut from $40 to $31.
YPF’s downgrade follows “the resilient performance of its share price in the recent oil price downturn (down only 12 percent in the past month vs. a 42 percent average for the group),” according to Burgansky.
Ecopetrol S.A. (ADR) (NYSE: EC) remained at Hold and its price target was cut from $26 to $21 while Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp. (TSE: PRE) was upgraded to from Sell to Hold and its price target was cut from C$10.60 to C$8.80.
Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (ADR) recently traded at $8.14, down 1.09 percent.
YPF SA (ADR) recently traded at $27.94, down 4.32 percent.
Latest Ratings for PBR
Nov 2014 | UBS | Downgrades | Buy | Neutral |
Nov 2014 | Bank of America | Downgrades | Buy | Neutral |
Nov 2014 | Cowen & Company | Downgrades | Outperform | Market Perform |
View More Analyst Ratings for PBR
View the Latest Analyst Ratings
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