Diminishing Housing Affordability Continues to Slow Down Home Sales in November, C.A.R. Reports

Business Wire

LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--

The run-up in home prices, coupled with higher interest rates, put downward pressure on housing affordability and led to the fourth straight month of sales declines in November, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported.

“Improving home prices are a double-edged sword for the housing market. While welcomed news for homeowners and prospective sellers, diminished affordability is squeezing out many buyers and dampening their enthusiasm for home purchasing,” said 2014 C.A.R. President Kevin Brown. “Buyers are playing the waiting game and putting their home search on hold until prices stabilize and more inventory becomes available in the market.”

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 387,520 units in November, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. Sales in November were down 3.4 percent from a revised 401,000 in October and down 12 percent from a revised 440,250 in November 2012. The November 2013 figure was the lowest since July 2010. The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2013 if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The statewide median price of an existing, single-family detached home slipped 1.2 percent from October’s median price of $427,290 to $422,210 in November. November’s price was 22.2 percent higher than the revised $345,560 recorded in November 2012, marking the 17th straight month of double-digit annual gains. The median sales price is the point at which half of homes sold for more and half sold for less; it is influenced by the types of homes selling as well as a general change in values.

“Sales reached their highest level in the fourth quarter of 2012, when mortgage rates bottomed out last November. While diminishing housing affordability played a big role in the larger than expected decrease in home sales this November, exceptionally strong sales last year was another factor for the double-digit year-to-year decline,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “The demand for housing could remain soft in the upcoming months as buyers and sellers continue to search for a level playing field in the market.”

Other key facts of C.A.R.’s November 2013 resale housing report include:

  • The available supply of existing, single-family detached homes for sale edged up in November to 3.6 months, up from October’s Unsold Inventory Index of 3.4 months. The index was 3 months in November 2012. The index indicates the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. A six- to seven-month supply is considered typical in a normal market.
  • The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home also increased to 36.7 days in November, up from 33.1 days in October, but was down from 37.5 days in November 2012.
  • Mortgage rates rose in November, with the 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaging 4.26 percent, up from 4.19 percent in October and up from 3.35 percent in November 2012, according to Freddie Mac. Adjustable-mortgage interest rates in November averaged 2.61 percent, down from 2.63 in October and up from 2.57 percent in November 2012.

Charts:

Note: The County MLS median price and sales data in the tables are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS® throughout the state, and represent statistics of existing single-family detached homes only. County sales data are not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as changes in the cost of a standard home. The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices, which are skewed by a relatively small share of transactions at either the lower-end or the upper-end. Median prices can be influenced by changes in cost, as well as changes in the characteristics and the size of homes sold. Due to the low sales volume in some areas, median price changes may exhibit unusual fluctuation. The change in median prices should not be construed as actual price changes in specific homes.

Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 100 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with 165,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

November 2013 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
 
November 2013   Median Sold Price of Existing Single-Family Homes   Sales
  Nov.   Oct.       Nov.     MTM%   YTY%   MTM%   YTY%
State/Region/County   2013   2013       2012       Chg   Chg   Chg   Chg
Calif. Single-family (SAAR)   $422,210   $427,290       $345,560   r   -1.2%   22.2%   -3.4%   -12.0%
Calif. Condo/Townhome   $348,030   $351,170       $278,460   r   -0.9%   25.0%   -14.5%   -3.6%
Los Angeles Metro Area   $395,580   $391,450       $327,840       1.1%   20.7%   -17.0%   -16.6%
Inland Empire   $261,150   $257,820       $207,300       1.3%   26.0%   -13.4%   -16.4%
San Francisco Bay Area   $700,980   $679,640       $588,800       3.1%   19.1%   -18.4%   -11.8%
                                     
San Francisco Bay Area                                    
Alameda   $652,070   $618,930       $503,950       5.4%   29.4%   -14.9%   -5.7%
Contra-Costa (Central Cty.)   $786,930   $740,200       $614,330       6.3%   28.1%   -5.9%   -4.1%
Marin   $942,070   $959,740       $837,840       -1.8%   12.4%   -19.6%   2.8%
Napa   $528,410   $497,730       $378,200       6.2%   39.7%   -11.4%   -20.5%
San Francisco   $896,740   $844,510       $785,940       6.2%   14.1%   -15.5%   -12.8%
San Mateo   $895,000   $910,000       $755,000       -1.6%   18.5%   -25.9%   -13.8%
Santa Clara   $782,500   $770,000       $679,000       1.6%   15.2%   -18.1%   -15.2%
Solano   $280,360   $294,920       $225,400       -4.9%   24.4%   -29.7%   -21.0%
Sonoma   $463,820   $469,900       $380,800       -1.3%   21.8%   -20.2%   -13.7%
Southern California                                    
Los Angeles   $405,260   $447,130       $337,080       -9.4%   20.2%   -22.2%   -15.3%
Orange County   $660,890   $660,080       $565,020       0.1%   17.0%   -9.3%   -17.8%
Riverside County   $306,350   $296,640       $239,610       3.3%   27.9%   -11.8%   -19.7%
San Bernardino   $191,570   $191,140       $152,000       0.2%   26.0%   -15.8%   -10.5%
San Diego   $473,360   $477,130       $403,990       -0.8%   17.2%   -16.8%   -13.5%
Ventura   $543,330   $538,740       $453,760       0.9%   19.7%   -17.5%   -22.6%
Central Coast                                    
Monterey   $420,000   $412,000       $323,100       1.9%   30.0%   -9.0%   -25.8%
San Luis Obispo   $486,510   $440,380       $391,560       10.5%   24.2%   7.1%   -0.8%
Santa Barbara   $558,330   $613,640       $509,380       -9.0%   9.6%   -8.4%   -14.3%
Santa Cruz   $666,000   $650,000       $512,500       2.5%   30.0%   -18.9%   -20.3%
Central Valley                                    
Fresno   $193,020   $182,620       $148,240       5.7%   30.2%   -18.6%   -18.7%
Glenn   $150,000   $125,000       $160,000       20.0%   -6.3%   69.2%   83.3%
Kern (Bakersfield)   $190,000   $185,000       $150,000       2.7%   26.7%   -1.3%   -7.8%
Kings County   $171,670   $181,000       $139,230       -5.2%   23.3%   -7.2%   -24.7%
Madera   $160,000   $153,330       $113,330       4.4%   41.2%   -44.4%   -23.1%
Merced   $151,540   $171,820       $142,000       -11.8%   6.7%   -16.0%   11.7%
Placer County   $361,160   $364,150       $306,590       -0.8%   17.8%   -19.3%   -21.3%
Sacramento   $246,900   $253,560       $194,700       -2.6%   26.8%   -19.0%   -25.1%
San Benito   $380,000   $397,500       $365,000       -4.4%   4.1%   -19.6%   -17.8%
San Joaquin   $233,070   $234,160       $177,660       -0.5%   31.2%   -15.6%   -11.2%
Stanislaus   $198,400   $209,110       $155,760       -5.1%   27.4%   -23.5%   -22.6%
Tulare   $161,300   $161,330       $139,260   r   0.0%   15.8%   -8.7%   -8.7%
Other Counties in Calif.                                    
Amador   $212,500   $198,000       $186,670       7.3%   13.8%   6.1%   -23.9%
Butte County   $255,950   $248,330       $223,860       3.1%   14.3%   -21.6%   -6.2%
Calaveras   $215,000   $225,000       NA       -4.4%   NA   -20.8%   NA
Del Norte   $135,000   $176,600       NA       -23.6%   NA   -17.4%   NA
El Dorado County   $361,860   $367,390       $282,260       -1.5%   28.2%   -15.1%   -16.9%
Humboldt   $239,280   $260,530       $238,040       -8.2%   0.5%   -14.3%   -13.3%
Lake County   $143,330   $196,250       $142,500       -27.0%   0.6%   0.0%   -1.4%
Tuolumne   $212,500   $200,000       $194,000       6.3%   9.5%   -13.3%   -24.6%
Mendocino   $300,000   $255,000       $223,080       17.6%   34.5%   -20.0%   -13.0%
Shasta   $207,560   $208,540       $168,420   r   -0.5%   23.2%   2.7%   -3.5%
Siskiyou County   $166,670   $156,670       $137,500       6.4%   21.2%   3.2%   -34.7%
Sutter   $206,000   $195,750       NA       5.2%   NA   -20.7%   NA
Tehama   $180,000   $142,500       $125,710       26.3%   43.2%   -4.8%   -47.4%
Yolo   $283,330   $311,290       $232,350       -9.0%   21.9%   -32.4%   -24.6%
Yuba   $210,000   $195,000       NA       7.7%   NA   -15.9%   NA
 
r = revised
NA = not available
 
November 2013 County Unsold Inventory and Time on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
 
November 2013   Unsold Inventory Index   Median Time on Market
  Nov.   Oct.     Nov.     Nov.   Oct.       Nov.  
State/Region/County   2013   2013       2012       2013   2013       2012    
Calif. Single-family   3.6   3.4       3.0   r   36.7   33.1       37.5    
Calif. Condo/Townhomes   3.3   3.0       3.0       36.5   31.8       44.2    
Los Angeles Metro Area   3.9   3.6       3.2       42.8   40.7       44.5    
Inland Empire   4.5   4.0       3.5       40.1   37.2       42.4    
San Francisco Bay Area   2.3   2.3       2.3       39.8   37.5       44.0    
                                         
San Francisco Bay Area                                        
Alameda   1.7   2.0       1.6       51.2   50.0       57.5    
Contra-Costa (Central Cty.)   2.0   2.5       1.9       53.5   52.9       62.9    
Marin   2.7   2.9       3.5       44.6   38.4       54.2    
Napa   4.6   4.7       4.1       53.6   49.0       63.1    
San Francisco   2.4   2.5       2.3       25.5   25.1       36.0    
San Mateo   2.0   1.8       1.9       20.9   19.4       21.3    
Santa Clara   1.8   1.9       1.6       21.2   21.4       21.2    
Solano   3.1   2.4       3.3       41.7   38.0       45.3    
Sonoma   3.2   3.0       3.4       54.4   48.1       61.7    
Southern California                                        
Los Angeles   3.6   3.2       2.9       38.4   35.7       40.4    
Orange County   3.8   3.8       3.3       53.2   54.5       52.6    
Riverside County   4.8   4.3       3.5       40.3   38.1       44.9    
San Bernardino   4.0   3.5       3.6       40.1   36.1       38.0    
San Diego   4.1   3.7       3.8       29.3   28.1       36.4    
Ventura   3.5   3.3       3.5       52.4   49.1       59.7    
Central Coast                                        
Monterey   4.3   4.3       3.4       27.8   26.8       27.2    
San Luis Obispo   4.0   4.8       3.9       47.4   27.5       48.2    
Santa Barbara   4.3   4.1       4.1   r   34.3   33.8       50.0    
Santa Cruz   3.5   3.5       2.8       29.0   27.1       28.0    
Central Valley                                        
Fresno   5.1   4.3       4.2       26.3   24.3       26.3    
Glenn   3.6   6.7       5.4       31.0   69.7       22.8    
Kern (Bakersfield)   3.0   2.9   r   3.2   r   22.0   19.0       26.0   r
Kings County   3.9   3.9       2.9       41.4   32.3       42.9    
Madera   5.2   2.9       3.2       48.4   28.5       27.9    
Merced   2.7   2.5       3.4       24.1   23.1       27.7    
Placer County   3.6   3.2       2.3       26.4   24.7       23.1    
Sacramento   3.5   3.1       2.0       22.7   21.6       22.4    
San Benito   3.5   2.8       2.8       26.5   24.8       29.4    
San Joaquin   2.8   2.6       2.7       23.9   20.9       23.0    
Stanislaus   3.2   2.5       2.0       22.3   20.4       20.3    
Tulare   4.0   4.0       1.3   r   29.1   28.6       25.2   r
Other Counties in California                                        
Amador   5.3   5.6       5.3       40.2   28.9       61.0    
Butte County   5.0   4.4       3.9       35.8   45.0       43.1    
Calaveras   7.1   6.2       NA       77.0   62.0       NA    
Del Norte   7.6   7.3       NA       79.0   78.0       NA    
El Dorado County   4.5   4.4       3.3       50.0   42.2       50.5    
Humboldt   7.6   7.2       5.5       37.2   32.9       39.2    
Lake County   4.9   5.5       5.4       96.4   75.5       75.5    
Tuolumne   7.7   7.3       4.8       49.1   29.5       49.9    
Mendocino   8.0   6.9       7.1       108.4   73.4       67.4    
Shasta   4.9   5.5       4.1   r   37.8   27.2       36.3   r
Siskiyou County   10.1   11.2       6.9       80.3   93.9       80.3    
Sutter   3.8   3.2       NA       19.5   19.5       NA    
Tehama   9.8   9.4       5.4       49.1   41.9       75.5    
Yolo   3.4   2.6       2.4       22.5   21.8       24.5    
Yuba   3.5   3.0       NA       16.0   24.0       NA    
 
r = revised
NA = not available

Contact:
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ®
Lotus Lou, 213-739-8304
lotusl@car.org

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