Does Eerie Calm in Gold, Long Bond Portend a Volatile Move?


The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

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Today's Highlight: Gold's and the long bond's narrow ranging have created an eerie sense of something volatile about to happen. The recent run-up in crude oil may be only coincidental. In any case, a knee-jerk reaction to news would get a benefit of the doubt, instead of just doubt.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Tuesday's drop to new lows at 81.65 must now hold under 81.95 to maintain the drop's momentum.

Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
The two-week old gap up to 1.3188 was filled Tuesday, and held. So did a test of 1.3155 support. Back under 1.3120-1.3130 would now signal momentum reversing down.

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Apr Contract GC; (GLD)
Tuesday's pre-open surge back toward Friday's 1483.00 high was not duplicated intraday. Early strength Wednesday would be credible for extending up to 1532.50 before launching a new downleg to new lows under 1390.00. Otherwise, a near-term dip could launch another rally leg from testing 1429.50.

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May Contract SI; (SLV)
Tuesday's ranging around 24.20 for a second consecutive session makes any new strength capable of extending higher into the weekend.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (TLT)
Tuesday's retest of the 149-05 high reaction down to test the 148-16 pullback limit. The quick dip still seems a little premature to reverse down already, but early weakness would still get a benefit of the doubt for extending intraday.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (USO)
Tuesday's test of the 93.25 pullback limit allows renewed strength targeting 95.30 and potentially 96.00. Back under 92.85 would instead target 91.00.

Natural Gas
Apr Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Monday's recovery attempt didn't extend any higher Tuesday. Neither was it rejected, so early strength Wednesday would be credible for extending to new highs into and out of Thursday's EIA report.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.

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