Dollar Index (DXZ13) Three obstacles vs Triple PRZ

Kathy Garber
November 25, 2013
11 24 2013 DX D MTS 300x162 Dollar Index (DXZ13) Three obstacles vs Triple PRZ
11 24 2013 DX D MTS 300x162 Dollar Index (DXZ13) Three obstacles vs Triple PRZ

Can the dollar index commit to reaching a Triple Pattern PRZ (potential reversal zone aka Harmonic pattern completion zone) at 77.955 to 77.955 area, or will three specific obstacles prevent this scenario?   

The bigger picture is the green pattern, it’s initial completion target is 77.955, there are two other harmonic pattern completion targets in this region which increases the magnet strength for a target as well as increases the potential rejection if reached, and forms a triple pattern zone or PRZ.

Obstacle #1: the longer price holds above 80.940, the weaker the probability of playing out the green Harmonic pattern.

Obstacle #2: there are important support levels that must fail as support, these being initially 80.617, then 80.023, 79.347, 79.060 and a double harmonic pattern PRZ 78.75.

Obstacle # 3: a hold above 81.580 messes with the symmetry of the large green pattern, which of course is the largest magnet source of the triple patterns, it also invalidates the brown pattern which is offering part of the triple PRZ magnetism.

So three specific obstacles vs triple pattern PRZ … which shall prevail?  And more important, how does one trade this?

Here’s a starter example of trading this scenario:

The initial important level for a support test is 80.617, a hold above this level keeps price in a sideways range so a conservative approach is wait for a closing candle with continuation on smaller timeframe either above 81.580 or below 80.617.  Then there are distinct targets in both directions to scale the position, tighten the position or exit the position depending on risk and reward factors.  Keep in mind the targets are also potential rejection points, so they also offer a place to stalk a reversal position.