Talking Points
- Dollar, Yen Rise on Haven Flows as Chinese Export Data Misses Forecasts
- German CPI Revision, UK PPI Report Unlikely to Spark Strong Reaction
- S&P 500 Index Futures Sink, Hinting Risk Aversion is Likely to Continue
The US Dollar and Japanese Yen pushed higher overnight, rising against all of their major counterparts as Asian stocks declined, boosting demand for the go-to haven currencies. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional equity benchmark index fell 0.9 percent amid economic slowdown fears after Chinese export growth slowed to the weakest in six months. Overseas sales added 1 percent in the year to July, falling short of economists’ expectations for an 8 percent increase. New Loans dropped to CNY540.1 billion over the same period, marking the lowest reading since September 2011 and underscoring the deepening downturn in the world’s second-largest economy.
The economic calendar is relatively quiet in European hours, with the final revision of July’s German CPI figures and the UK PPI report highlighting a docket of second-tier releases. Both outcomes are unlikely to generate a strong reaction from price action given their limited capacity to reshape established ECB and BOE policy expectations. Markets are pre-occupied with new “non-standard” Eurozone debt crisis-fighting measures in the case of the former and have learned most of everything they needed to know in the quarterly inflation report where it concerns the latter. S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing firmly lower, hinting the risk-averse mood is likely to carry forward through the end of the trading week.
Asia Session: What Happened
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
22:45 |
NZD |
NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (JUL) |
-0.6% |
0.3% |
0.4% (R-) |
|
22:45 |
NZD |
NZ Card Spending (MoM) (JUL) |
-0.8% |
- |
0.1% (R-) |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Domestic CGPI (MoM) (JUL) |
-0.4% |
0.1% |
-0.7% (R-) |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Domestic CGPI (YoY) (JUL) |
-2.1% |
-1.5% |
-1.4% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
RBA Statement on Monetary Policy |
- |
- |
- |
|
3:00 |
CNY |
Trade Balance ($) (JUL) |
25.10B |
35.05B |
31.72B |
|
3:00 |
CNY |
Exports (YoY) (JUL) |
1.0% |
8.0% |
11.3% |
|
3:00 |
CNY |
Imports (YoY) (JUL) |
4.7% |
7.0% |
6.3% |
|
4:30 |
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN F) |
0.4% |
- |
-0.1% |
|
4:30 |
JPY |
Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN F) |
-1.5% |
- |
-2.0% |
|
4:30 |
JPY |
Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JUN F) |
-2.3% |
- |
-2.2% |
|
5:00 |
JPY |
BOJ Monthly Economic Report |
- |
- |
- |
|
5:00 |
CNY |
New Yuan Loans (JUL) |
540.1B |
700.0B |
919.8B |
|
5:00 |
CNY |
Money Supply – M0 (JUL) |
10.0% |
- |
10.8% |
|
5:00 |
CNY |
Money Supply – M1 (JUL) |
4.6% |
5.3% |
4.7% |
|
5:00 |
CNY |
Money Supply – M2 (JUL) |
13.9% |
13.8% |
13.6% |
Euro Session: What to Expect
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Consumer Price Index (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Medium |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Consumer Price Index (YoY) |
1.7% |
1.7% |
Medium |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Medium |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) |
2.0% |
2.0% |
Medium |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
French Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.1% |
-1.9% |
Low |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
French Industrial Production (YoY) |
-1.8% |
-3.5% |
Low |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
French Manufacturing Production (MoM) |
0.0% |
-1.0% |
Low |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
French Manufacturing Production (YoY) |
-2.1% |
-4.3% |
Low |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
French Central Government Balance (€) |
-62.9B |
-69.9B |
Low |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.0% |
Low |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) |
3.0% |
3.0% |
Low |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Italian CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) |
-1.6% |
-1.6% |
Low |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Italian CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) |
3.7% |
3.7% |
Low |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
PPI Input n.s.a. (MoM) |
1.3% |
-2.2% |
Low |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
PPI Input n.s.a. (YoY) |
-1.5% |
-2.3% |
Low |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM) |
0.0% |
-0.4% |
Medium |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) |
2.0% |
2.3% |
Medium |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
PPI Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) |
0.1% |
-0.2% |
Low |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
PPI Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) |
1.6% |
2.0% |
Low |
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
SUPPORT |
RESISTANCE |
|
EURUSD |
1.2200 |
1.2373 |
|
GBPUSD |
1.5483 |
1.5681 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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