iPhone 6 is coming, and the economic impact is going to be huge.
In a note to clients, Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists Ting Lu and Marcella Chow write that iPhone 6 should boost China's export growth by 1% per month for the rest of 2014.
iPhone 6 sales are also expected to boost Taiwan's export growth 2% per month from August through October, and 1% from November through January.
Lu and Chow write: "We found that the upcoming iPhone 6’s release could add about 1% per month to China export growth for the rest of 2014, while Taiwan’s export growth could be boosted by around 2% per month during August-October and 1% per month in November 2014 to January 2015. These numbers are not that small. Export growth of China and Taiwan was only 4.9% and 4.4% yoy in 2Q14 respectively, so a boost of 1 to 2 percentage points to headline export growth is no small matter, especially for the currency market which closely tracks export growth numbers."
iPhone sales should also account for 0.4% of GDP Taiwan's GDP growth in 2014, a larger impact than in the past, as each iPhone 6 is expected to contain about $25 worth of inputs from Taiwan manufacturers.
This call is based on forecasts that 100 million iPhones will be sold in the second half of this year, including a record 63 million in the fourth quarter.
Here's a table of iPhone sales expectations through next year. Apple is expected to announce iPhone 6 next week.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
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