$ES_F traders beware the Blood Moon volatility as an outside down month sets up

Brian Shepard
April 10, 2014
mts marketrecap 330 300x207 $ES F traders beware the Blood Moon volatility as an outside down month sets up
mts marketrecap 330 300x207 $ES F traders beware the Blood Moon volatility as an outside down month sets up

Collective Intelligence!

This was yesterday’s opening:  After the S&P 500 gapped five handles higher on the open, concern started growing – another gap and crap in the making? Was it concern over geopolitical concerns ramping up again or was it the homegrown FOMC minutes due to be released? Either way, there was another sigh of relief this morning that the overseas markets were able to extend yesterday’s gains. Where the markets go following this afternoon’s news is anyone’s guess.

Last night, the Asian economic data disappointed and China has not mentioned any long-term stimuli - preferring to taking in on the chin in the short term. Well, the relief rally, centered around the sometimes dovish-sounding Fed Chair Yellen and other central bankers QE hopium ran its course over the past two days as the S&P 500 futures bounced from 1831 to a high of 1866.50 late yesterday. After the opening the RTH’s pit session reached an 1866 high today before the air slowly but steadily was let out of the rally balloon as the equities cratered throughout the midday. There are a number of excuses for today’s weakness, but none of them are new. It just seems to be a culmination of the negatives and the maturing rally that briefly took the S&P to a new all-time high of 1892.00 last Friday in the wake of the jobs data, followed by an intraday/weekly low of 1831.00 on Tuesday.

Snippets: Admittedly, gazing into the stars is not for everyone, but this was posted in the MTS chat room, in the middle of last night’s moonlit sky as well as earlier warning of a coming sea change in the air:  stockmarketwhisperer (01:13a.m.) Hi… How are you all enjoying the huge volatility I warned of for late March/April? Pretty amazing but…. You aint seen nothin’ yet! While 60 pt swings are impressive… ‘wait…there’s more” This market is bi-polar…and the ‘stop/start’ energy I mentioned for this time frame is going to continue through middle of May… The remainder of the month starting Monday, is the center of the strongest astro alignments we will see in years. HUGE energy back to back…where 100 pts ES will get covered. Whipsaw city will really test what we traders are made of! Dont fall in love with a trend…there isnt any!

TODAY… has a choppy volatile enthusiasm that wants to go up, but after one touch into the 70′s (74?) (that will meet too much headwind and get caught in a choppy ‘go nowhere’ battle/malaise and drop into weakness by end of week . A stalling lower high top that will have to go test 53ish…but this week is actually calm before a 2 week storm of violent whipsaw action bigger than we have yet had. THE low of the month is still 10 trading days away…but Monday into Tuesday is a powder keg. We have Pluto changing direction, a full moon lunar eclipse thats a rare Blood Moon.. (watch out for MAJOR headlines hitting) ‘Skeletons falling out of govt closets’…, thats also going to light a fuse and intensify all key events and tensions, and God help us, more earthquakes, and 5 additional massive aspects…any of which can move the ES 50 pts alone, let alone all this jammed together like this… Blood Moons are harbingers for major key events in world history; this one should involve the middle east/Israel… Buckle up and get your beauty sleep this weekend. Stay safe! NOT the weekend to do speculative sports or travelling. There is some sort of over emotional disruption or eruption coming. Will bears drop the soap? No. But they will play hide and seek with it before they scare the crap out of everyone who owns an investment.

Jim_Mayo (04:45a.m.) SMW thanks, that is the fact…. the rest of the world does not share the BS the Yellen served up... and call the past few months an experiment. Asia and especially eurozone totally disregard it, and feel nothing has happened / same story , but I want to show you that the usual volume starts to disappear from the book inside the last 5 min. to announcement, there was usual volume to sell side on high pre minutes, (in green circle)… I was on the fence looking for a small buy on a down tic but 1852.50 would not break I had canceled and decided  to watch….but then a quick down tic (with no orders visible) this 16000 flashed on a buy I saw it with no time to react, that being said,….. do you think someone had prior info to release? There was no time for that to build up >> http://pic50.picturetrail.com/VOL434/108633/24127340/409194736.jpg  this is BS — the video taken from Raphael’s post. Dr. Brett is great  http://youtu.be/vJG698U2Mvo  really focus on the ball.

Sam_E (08:32) i will say this about smw. she has her own way. and what she does takes enormous amounts of time. it works. the astro stuff is foreign to me but if you have somebody who gets it its a real edge to get tuned in to it. they are hard to find. not all methodology is easy to understand. the clock. fibs. deviations everybody has their own way. the best trader i ever knew literally traded off a scratch pad with no indicator but the high and low tide in the Baltimore Harbor.

Today started with 277k ESM traded on Globex, trading range was 1867.50 – 1857.50. Yesterday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1866.50 – 1845.80a before settling at 1864.80, up 19.8 handles. U.S. jobless claims checked in at 300k vs est of 320k, most since 2006 and lowest since May 2007.

Today’s RTH’s pit session opening tick gapped 1.2 handles higher to 1866.00 – 1864.80 and quietly traded sideways in the opening minutes. The quiet before the storm … After opening at 1866 the S&P faded back to 1861.50 before double topping at The YELL 1866 area. It was slow to develop, but once the sell programs hit there were no buyers to stand in their way. Suffice it to say … the equities, risk-on crowd don’t react the way they did – today’s price action – without some anxiety to panic in their demeanor. Risk management and flight to quality ran their course – as the bonds retested their 2-week highs.

This is a sign of today’s short & sweet recap: Roger_S (14:48)  Biggest bounce of the day now – 10 handle rally off the 1823.50 intraday – multi week low and parker_schwartz (15:09) outside down month setting up here …

(14:00) MiM – MrTopStep Imbalance Meter showed a small sell-side imbalance before growing to $400M to sell going into the cash close. On the cash close the futures traded 1826.70 area, before settling at 1827.10, down 37.7 handles on the day, while the [VIX] went out 15.89, up 2.07 ticks or 15% on the day. At their lows the Nasdaq composite fell over 3% while the S&P dropped 2% today before bouncing.

Eco calendar: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Some banks start to report tomorrow.

The following was first posted Tuesday: Oh what a RELIEF RALLY it was! Now, we will see what is in store for the markets following the 2-1/2 day selloff and the bears taking their foot off the pedal midmorning.  *Of note – Every single market correction since the 1970s has been preceded by a Fed rate hike, double-digit hike in oil prices or significant global crisis – Cyrus.  Oh, that’s all it takes? – Srosen.

Interesting article posted by … HITMANGOLF: long momo tech short spus http://www.cnbc.com/id/101564158