Ethanol: Sell The Rally

Henry Marchell
December 10, 2012

ETHANOL
ETHANOL S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 TREND
DAILY 2310 2363 2375 2395 2420 DOWN
WEEKLY 2210 2310 2375 2472 2572 DOWN

Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.389, 2.377, 3.249
Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 2.460, 2.307, 2.453

Although drought remains a very deep concern in the mid-continent, the rains in Argentina and Brazil along with the size of the crops have the U.S. grain markets under mild pressure.
• For Jan this is likely to mean continued weakness in the early part of the week.
• It is likely that Jan will find resistance at the 2.395 to 2.40 zone.
• The minor upside pivot is 2.415.
• The key upside pivot is 2.445.
• Our forecast sees Jan falling to the weekly trend at 2.365.
• With a daily settle below that level it is likely that Jan will continue lower to see and test 2.31.
• This is the key downside pivot.
• This is a sell the rally market.

Ethanol Weekly
Ethanol Weekly