With the Syria situation beginning to recede, US economic data including the Q2 GDP revisions and jobless claims could be prime catalysts to drive EURUSD through the heavily guarded 1.3250 support.
The US dollar (USD) gained some ground against both the euro (EUR) and Japanese yen (EUR) overnight as the imminent threat of a military strike on Syria began to recede. With lawmakers in both the US and UK starting to debate the proper response, it has become clear to the markets that any immediate and unilateral action by the US is unlikely, and that has resulted in a relief rally for the dollar.
USDJPY broke through the 98.00 level, with the pair running to a high of 98.24 in morning European trade. EURUSD, which has been trapped in a 1.3300-1.3450 range for the better part of the past week, finally gave way to the downside, falling to a low of 1.3253.
There is a reported $500 million option barrier at the 1.3250 level that may keep the pair propped up until the NY cut, but momentum is clearly to the downside, and traders are likely to take another run at that number to test the support below.
The one high-beta currency that has held its ground relatively well was the British pound (GBP), which did so on rumors that Vodafone may be in negotiations to sell its 45% stake in Verizon. The deal is reported to be worth up $130 billion and is pound positive. EURGBP slid to .8550 and could drop to .8500 if the news is confirmed.
Job Market Jitters Hit the Eurozone
The euro got no help on the economic front today, as German unemployment rose by 7K versus forecasts for a -5K print. This was the first rise in joblessness in three months, suggesting that growth in the Eurozone’s largest economy may be slowing. The rise in unemployment also comes at an awkward time for Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is facing re-election in early September and will now have to defend her policies.
Peaceful Headlines to Watch Today
With both UK and US legislators continuing to debate the Syrian situation, it appears that a response may be delayed and may not occur without UN support. President Barack Obama's rhetoric has been decidedly more sober over the past 24 hours, and Prime Minister David Cameron has yet to receive Parliamentary support.
Therefore, with a potential global response at a standstill, the markets may turn their focus back toward economics. With US GDP and weekly jobless claims on the economic calendar, the greenback may get another boost if the data surprises to the upside, with USDJPY targeting 98.50 and EURUSD testing the 1.3250 support as the day progresses.
By Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management