Talking Points
- ECB Monthly Report in Focus as Traders Ponder Crisis-Fighting Measures
- Dollar, Yen Decline as Soft Chinese Data Set Stokes PBOC Stimulus Hopes
- Australian Dollar Outperforms on Jobs Gain, BOJ Keeps Policy on Hold
Augusts’ ECB Monthly Reportis in focus in European trading hours. ECB President Mario Draghi started planting the seeds for the unveiling of a new fundingstress-relief effort. The central bank chief first brought runaway bond yields into the ECB mandate with a speech in London two weeks ago and then alluded to “non-standard policy measures” to be hashed out in the “coming weeks” at the monthly press conference last week.
A possible bailout request from Spain – the largest such effort to date – hinges on the as-yet absent details of the program. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said in a press conference last Friday that he would condition asking for help on the ECB’s measures. With stakes running high, traders will look to the monthly report for guidance, hoping some of the operational details of the ECB’s new initiatives will emerge.
The US Dollar and Japanese Yen declined overnight as stocks advanced overnight, dampening demand for the go-to haven currencies. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equities index added 0.8 percent after Chinese CPI figures showed inflation slowed to 1.8 percent, the weakest since January 2010. The outcome drove hopes that Beijing will have space to press forward with stimulus measures to underpin growth in the world’s second-largest economy.
Disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures reinforced expectations for forthcoming accommodation. The Australian Dollar outperformed, with the risk-on mood compounded by narrowly better-than-forecast Employment figures. The Bank of Japan opted to keep monetary policy unchanged, as expected.
Asia Session: What Happened
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
22:45 |
NZD |
Unemployment Rate (2Q) |
6.8% |
6.5% |
6.7% |
|
22:45 |
NZD |
Employment Change (QoQ) (2Q) |
-0.0% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
22:45 |
NZD |
Employment Change (YoY) (2Q) |
0.6% |
1.2% |
0.9% |
|
22:45 |
NZD |
Participation Rate (QoQ) (2Q) |
68.4% |
68.6% |
68.7% (R-) |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (JUL) |
2.2% |
2.2% |
2.2% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (JUL) |
1.9% |
1.9% |
1.9% (R-) |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Machine Orders (MoM) (JUN) |
5.6% |
12.0% |
-14.8% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Machine Orders (YoY) (JUN) |
-9.9% |
-4.5% |
1.0% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Housing Loans (YoY) (2Q) |
2.7% |
- |
2.4% |
|
0:00 |
NZD |
QV House Prices (YoY) (JUL) |
4.6% |
- |
4.2% |
|
1:00 |
NZD |
ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (AUG) |
114.1 |
- |
110.5 |
|
1:00 |
NZD |
ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (AUG) |
3.3% |
- |
4.4% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Employment Change (JUL) |
14.0K |
10.0K |
-28.3K (R-) |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Unemployment Rate (JUL) |
5.2% |
5.3% |
5.3% (R-) |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Part Time Employment Change (JUL) |
4.8K |
- |
6.5K (R-) |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Full Time Employment Change (JUL) |
9.2K |
- |
-34.8K (R-) |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Participation Rate (JUL) |
65.2% |
65.3% |
65.3% (R+) |
|
1:30 |
CNY |
Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) |
-2.9% |
-2.5% |
-2.1% |
|
1:30 |
CNY |
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) |
1.8% |
1.7% |
2.2% |
|
2:00 |
JPY |
Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (%) (JUL) |
9.3 |
- |
9.43 |
|
3:22 |
JPY |
Bank of Japan Rate Decision (AUG 9) |
0.10% |
0.10% |
0.10% |
|
4:00 |
NZD |
REINZ House Sales (YoY) (JUL) |
19.9% |
- |
17.3% |
|
4:00 |
NZD |
REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (JUL) |
-0.7% |
- |
-0.3% |
|
4:00 |
NZD |
REINZ Housing Price Index (JUL) |
3377.1 |
- |
3400.8 |
|
5:00 |
JPY |
Consumer Confidence (JUL) |
39.7 |
40.0 |
40.4 |
|
5:30 |
CNY |
Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUL) |
10.3% |
10.4% |
10.5% |
|
5:30 |
CNY |
Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL) |
9.2% |
9.7% |
9.5% |
|
5:30 |
CNY |
Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (JUL) |
20.4% |
20.6% |
20.4% |
|
5:30 |
CNY |
Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (JUN) |
14.2% |
14.3% |
14.4% |
|
5:30 |
CNY |
Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL) |
13.1% |
13.5% |
13.7% |
|
6:00 |
JPY |
Machine Tool Orders (YoY) |
- |
- |
-15.5% |
Euro Session: What to Expect
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
ECB Publishes Monthly Report (AUG) |
- |
- |
High |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Italian Trade Balance (Total) (€) (JUN) |
- |
1008M |
Low |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Italian Trade Balance EU (€) (JUN) |
- |
691M |
Low |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Visible Trade Balance (£) (JUN) |
-8725 |
-8363 |
Medium |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Total Trade Balance (£) (JUN) |
-3100 |
-2717 |
Medium |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Trade Balance Non EU (£) (JUN) |
-4100 |
-3865 |
Low |
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
SUPPORT |
RESISTANCE |
|
EURUSD |
1.2327 |
1.2403 |
|
GBPUSD |
1.5594 |
1.5739 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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