Euro May Find Support in PMI Data, SNB Rate Decision on Tap

Ilya Spivak
June 20, 2013

The Euro may find support as June’s flash PMI roundup argues against expanded ECB stimulus. The SNB rate decision is unlikely to offer policy innovation.

Talking Points

  • Euro May Rebound as PMIs Continue to Recover, Downgrading ECB Easing Bets
  • Swiss Franc Unlikely to Find Volatility in Status-Quo SNB Policy Announcement
  • NZ Dollar Lagged in Asia as Soft GDP Data Amplified Post-FOMC Risk Aversion

The preliminary set of June’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Expectations call for the composite gauge to edge higher for the third consecutive month, showing manufacturing- and service-sector activity shrank at the slowest pace since January. Such an outcome stands to underpin consensus forecasts suggesting that growth in the currency bloc is on the mend having bottomed in the first quarter. That may downgrade bets on a near-term expansion of ECB stimulus efforts, offering a lift to the Euro as prices continue to track the front-end yield spread.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to maintain the target for its benchmark lending rate in the 0.0-0.25 percent range while the EURCHF floor remains at 1.20. The case for a status-quo outcome seems compelling. Indeed, the headline inflation rate has not accelerated deeper into negative territory and economic news-flow has improved relative to expectations since the central bank’s last sit-down in mid-March. The recent deterioration in European funding conditions has been mirrored in by a pullback in EURCHF however, suggesting Thomas Jordan and company are unlikely to let up on dovish rhetoric. On balance, that makes for a status-quo result that offers little in terms of lasting Swiss Franc volatility.

The US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising against all of its top counterparts as Asian markets responded to yesterday’s FOMC monetary policy announcement. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said policymakers can conceivably begin to reduce the size of monthly asset purchases this year, with eye to discontinue them by mid-2014. The New Zealand Dollar bore the brunt of the selloff as general risk-aversion was compounded by a disappointment on the first-quarter GDP figure.

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q)

0.3%

0.5%

1.5%

22:45

NZD

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q)

2.4%

2.5%

3.2%

1:30

AUD

RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (A$) (MAY)

490M

-

382M

1:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Govt. (MAY)

-515M

-

-624M

1:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Other (MAY)

33M

-

64M

1:45

CNY

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (JUN)

48.3

49.1

49.2

5:00

JPY

Supermarket Sales (YoY) (MAY)

-1.2%

-

-1.9%

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (APR F)

95.3

-

94.8

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (APR F)

99.0

-

99.3

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance (CHF) (MAY)

2.40B

1.70B

Medium

6:00

CHF

Exports (MoM) (MAY)

-

-7.6%

Low

6:00

CHF

Imports (MoM) (MAY)

-

-0.9%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Producer Prices (MoM) (MAY)

-0.1%

-0.2%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Producer Prices (YoY) (MAY)

0.3%

0.1%

Low

7:00

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (JUN P)

47.0

46.4

Low

7:00

EUR

French PMI Services (JUN P)

44.8

44.3

Low

7:00

JPY

Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (MAY)

-

-2.6%

Low

7:30

CHF

Swiss National Bank Rate Decision

0.0%

0.0%

High

7:30

CHF

Swiss National Bank EUR/CHF Floor

1.20

1.20

High

7:30

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (JUN A)

49.9

49.4

High

7:30

EUR

German PMI Services (JUN A)

50.0

49.7

High

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (JUN A)

48.6

48.3

High

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Services (JUN A)

47.5

47.2

High

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Composite (JUN A)

48.1

47.7

High

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAY)

1.0%

-1.4%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAY)

0.5%

0.2%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAY)

0.8%

-1.3%

Low

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAY)

0.2%

0.5%

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (JUN)

-12

-20

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (JUN)

4

4

Low

14:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUN A)

-21.5

-21.9

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3170

1.3387

GBPUSD

1.5310

1.5624

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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