Euro Riding Higher as Greece Bailout Stays Alive

MrTopStep.com

Another pass at Greek credibility is going to be attempted Monday as another meeting has been set by the Euro policymakers to discuss the Greek situation. We are sure that one of the architects designing the Eurozone credit solutions must be named Ponzi, because that is all this exercise is, a Ponzi scheme. Or perhaps musical chairs? The one left standing foots the bills. It is optimism that has the Euro higher early on in the trading session.
Japan’s economy is slipping closer towards recession and is looking for help from a weaker currency. Their economy has slowed considerably as their largest trading partner, China, has a disagreement over the Dioaoyu Islands. This has prompted handwringing in the Bank of Japan. The cry is for a weaker currency. But one needs recognize that demand is slipping slightly from the elevated levels following the tsunami.
The cease-fire in Gaza has stood for another day. It is an uneasy truce, but one that has for the most part held.
Another pass at Greek credibility is going to be attempted Monday as another meeting has been set by the Euro policymakers to discuss the Greek situation. We are sure that one of the architects designing the Eurozone credit solutions must be named Ponzi, because that is all this exercise is, a Ponzi scheme. Or perhaps musical chairs? The one left standing foots the bills. It is optimism that has the Euro higher early on in the trading session.
Japan’s economy is slipping closer towards recession and is looking for help from a weaker currency. Their economy has slowed considerably as their largest trading partner, China, has a disagreement over the Dioaoyu Islands. This has prompted handwringing in the Bank of Japan. The cry is for a weaker currency. But one needs recognize that demand is slipping slightly from the elevated levels following the tsunami.
The cease-fire in Gaza has stood for another day. It is an uneasy truce, but one that has for the most part held.

CRUDE: Hi: 87.77; Low: 86.71

The early stages of Friday’s market is sideways noise. It will likely stay that way, although the focus will likely be on economic rather than geopolitical issues Friday. To that end the slightly positive news on Greece is keeping the negative news of the ceasefire in place. Jan will have minor resistance at 87.50, with the minor upside pivot at 87.80. Although the key upside pivot is 89.80, we do not think that Jan will stretch that high. Rather is it is likely to truncate its advance at pattern resistance 88.10 to 88.20. This intraday key pivot will be found at 88.60. Support at the 21 DMA of 86.30 continues to hold the drifting lower. A break of that level in volume will eye the 85.50 to 85.30 zone. We are neutral.

BRENT: Hi: 110.67; Low: 110.10

The apex of the triangle on the daily chart is being squeezed tighter than a bug’s bottom. Although there is a minor downside pivot at 109.50, the key support for this market rests at the combo of the 21 DMA and trend support. These levels cuts the chart at 109.20 to 109.00. The key downside pivot to the intraday chart is a break of 109.00. This will signal a drop to 108.25. However, with the quiet trading it is likely that 109 does hold. Jan will need to better the minor pivot at 111.20 to show renewed strength. The key upside pivot though is 112.20. We are neutral of this market for Friday.

RBOB: Hi: 2.7594; Low: 2.7218

The bulls would have liked to see Dec above 2.76. That was our initial resistance level and it suggests that 2.77 may have completed a leg to the upside. However, the minor downside pivot that will confirm that view is found at 2.71. The key downside pivot to the intraday picture is 2.68. As long as Dec does not remove 2.71 the pattern remains friendly for the very short-term. With a break of 2.77 Dec will jump to 2.79 to 2.7950. This will be a two way market with very thin volume.

DIST Hi: 3.0748; Low: 3.0443

There is a triple top on the daily chart at the 3.0885 area that the bulls will need to jump to bring in upside momentum. However, on their side is the holding of the 100 DMA at 3.04. That is the key downside pivot to the intraday chart as well as the key downside pivot to the short-term scenario. It is with a break and daily settle below that level that Dec will tip lower and threaten that strong support at 2.95. We are inclined to be a seller of this market, but feel the volume will be light. The old adage -- Do not sell a quiet market short -- echoes in our ears.

NAT: 3.933; Low: 3.883

It appears likely that Dec has completed a leg to the upside, but not the wave. This model has Dec retracing before punching to the next leg higher. This model will want the bulls to hold the 3.85 to 3.84 level. The minor downside pivot is 3.835. The key downside pivot to the short term pattern is 3.80. The key downside pivot to the short-term bullishness of this formation is 3.66. We think that there is likely to be a move higher. We are looking to buy the 3.84 level with a tight stop below 3.83.

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