Expect Longterm Inside Ranges to Carry Through Q1 2013

MrTopStep.com

Long term inside ranges expected to carry into Q1 2013; outside ranges should be good into Q2....

Intermarket Ranges...
• Gold....our long term model in technical repair consolidation from Sept’s break above 1683 but is still finding difficulty at 1798-1811; avoiding a fresh breakout....ranges tighten; inside range 1740 / 1660....outside range 1811 / 1620

• Silver...monthly pattern has more constructive edge with hold above 31.40 sees the top of the current range at 36.00 and major resist converging at 38.20 (Feb 2012 high)....inside range 36.00/ 31.00....outside range 38.20 / 28.00

• Copper...long term chart weaving in neutral with top bottom of the range from 373/ 323.....resolution expands outside range to 401/ 300

• Crude Oil...broad constricting wedge ....lower highs / higher lows ....inside range 91.00 / 84.50...outside range 96.50 / 81.00

• Gasoline...finding footing on retest of the bottom of 2 yr range at 254.00 moves into upside relief mode above 268.00; needs weekly close above 297 for full LT technical repair....inside range 297/ 255...outside range 334 / 243

• Brent Crude...mixed weaving flat monthly moving averages signal choppy range which lacks follow through...inside range 119.00 / 103.50...outside range 124.00 / 94.00

• Wheat...LT momentum loss

• Corn....double bottom pattern 2.25-2.36 turns our attention to the upside momentum repair line at 2.56.....inside range 2.56 / 2.32...outside range 2.80 / 2.14

• Soybeans...pattern higher lows stands out with buyers

• Lumber....break out > 2009/2010 high begins to recover the beginning of the down leg starting May 2006....inside range lifted 359.00 / 322.00...outside range 382/ 299

• CRB....4th month lateral trend in neutral awaiting resolution pinching moving averages 317 / 277

• US 10yr Note Futures....lower high left standing 135’15-134’11 needs weekly close below 13-pd SMA at 132’26 to begin to turn the uptrend from May 2011....inside range 133’29 / 132’06...outside range 135’13 / 130’19

• US 30yr Bond Futures....lower high left against the top of the current LT projection range at 152’06....our momentum loss line at the 13-pd SMA rises to 146.25.....inside range 152’13 / 146’25...outside range 158’29 / 134’00

• US 10yr Yields....inside range1.83% / 1.57%...outside range 2.09% / 1.45%

• US 30yr Yields....inside range 3.14% / 2.50%...outside range 3.40% / 2.23% (projected)

• Bund Yields....inside range 1.59% (13-pd sma) / 1.25%...outside range 1.95%/ 1.06%

• Gilt Yields....3rd consecutive test of our first LT reversal line at falling 13-pd sma at 1.87%...inside range 1.87% / 1.54%...outside range 2.30%/ 1.37%

• BTP Yields...3rd consecutive lower low monthly bars pushing our next continuation line at 4.46%....inside range 4.89% / 4.23% extends Nov 2010 breakout....outside range 5.24% / 4.00%

• Spain Yields ...3mth pattern of lower lows reaching the next area of multiple support convergences at 5.20%....inside range 5.61% / 5.12%...outside range 5.98% / 4.90%-4.83% major

• OAT yields...contemplating a 2x bottom basing pattern at 2.00%-2.02% but would need a retake the falling 5-pd SMA at 2.138% and 8-pd SMA at 2.33% to confirm....inside range 2.16% / 1.95%...outside range 2.33% / 1.88%

• DXY...perhaps a head shoulder pattern with right shoulder forming at 81.26; neutral LT technical stance....inside range 80.90/ 79.20 tightens...outside range 82.70 / 78.00

• EURUSD....LT monthlies in technical relief above 1.2690 (holding the November retest); moves into its next leg of LT repair above the 13-pd SMA at 1.2920; the next continuation at 1.3120...inside range 1.3120 / 1.2690...outside range 1.3300 / 1.2510

• GBPUSD...September’s repair consolidation > 1.5840 sees the top of the current trading band at 1.6400...inside range 1.5840 / 1.6420...outside range 1.6900 / 1.5350

• EURJPY....4mth rebound from July lows at 94.12 eyes our key reversal line at the 34-pd SMA at 109.60... a weekly close above this descending moving average would effectively reverse the downtrend from Sept 2008 a 155.30 and perhaps regaining its “risk on” moniker....inside range 109.60 / 102.10 ...outside range 115.30 / 96.80

• USDJPY...reversing its downtrend from Nov 2007 at 115.00 with hold above the 34-pd SMA at 81.90; confirms higher low basing pattern; the next upside accelerator is 84.50.... inside range 84.50 / 79.90 ... outside range 86.50 / 76.50

• USDCHF...November gets negative technical downgrade below 9335 exposes an air pocket to 9040....inside range 9500/ 9070...outside range 1.00 / 8790

• AUDUSD chopping in LT neutral awaiting a resolution of a 5 month lateral trend....inside range 1.069 / 1.005...outside range 1.109 / 0/961

Inside Range
• Represents intra-month momentum gain (top) / loss (bottom)
• If level is broken (sustained 5 minute move at a minimum, not quick spike up/down), it then typically becomes support/resistance for the remainder of the period

Outside Range
• Represents short-term trend changes
• If broken, the current trend may be in the process of reversing
• 2nd Outside Range (applied if needed) may be in play for an acceleration following a key reversal

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