In a note to investors, Topeka Capital Markets analyst Victor Anthony predicts Facebook's annual revenue will reach $12 billion in 2016. He thinks Facebook will book about $5 billion in sales this year, and add about $1.5 billion each year after than in revenues.
Anthony's refreshingly thorough note breaks Facebook's revenue down by ad product, of which there are at least 12:
Display ads: More than 80 percent of Facebook's sales, currently.
Payments: Mostly from games. Anthony believes Facebook is making "a big push" to develop non-Zynga games on Facebook.
Sponsored Stories: The first social ad unit on Facebook.
Sponsored Search Results: FB is using this ad unit "as a testing ground for launching a search engine."
Facebook Exchange: Will take "a meaningful portion" of the $2 billion real-time bidding market.
Offers: "This ad unit is extremely viral because when a user claims an offer it is broadcasted to their friends."
Gifts: "In 2014, we estimate that FB could generate approximately $800mm in incremental revenues" from the new gifting service.
Promoted Posts: Will benefit from Facebook's restricted distribution of posts from brand pages.
Mobile App Installs Ads: FB gets "between $0.50-$3.00 each time a user clicks (not downloads) an app.
Custom Audience Ads: No charge per se, but better targeting.
Suggested Posts: A social ad unit that's still in testing.
Logout Page Ads: Ford, Microsoft, Samsung, Netflix, P&G, Subway and others have bought these ads, which can cost $700K. "FB once told Clickz that 37M people log-out each day, mostly from public computers," Anthony says.
Disclosure: The author owns Facebook stock.
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