Mon, May 28, 2012, 11:07 AM EDT - U.S. Markets closed for Memorial Day

Fed Will Be Forced to Ease Again Soon: Morgan Stanley

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
MS13.25-0.06

Morgan Stanley is predicting that the economy will slow dramatically in early 2012, which it thinks will prompt another round of Fed asset purchases.

The economy has picked up recently, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS - News) says, because energy prices have dropped and the world has unwound negative shocks from the tsunami-nuclear catastrophe in Japan. As this unwind runs out of steam, growth will slow to around 2 percent, Morgan Stanley's chief economist argues.

The Fed, however, will not act quickly or decisively because of internal disputes. We'll see hawks battle doves until, finally, everyone comes around to the idea that the Fed needs another round of quantitative easing sometime between March and June of 2012.

As Business Insider says, that's a "super specific" call. If Morgan Stanley gets it right, that'll be a huge gold star on his CV.

From MS (via BI):

The unwind of the negative shocks from Japan's earthquake and the run-up in energy prices earlier in the year are responsible for the recent run of strong data in the US economy, argues our Chief US Economist Vincent Reinhart in today's lead piece. Once these tailwinds have played out and a shallow fiscal pothole emerges, growth should slow to around 2% in early 2012. As a result, the Fed will probably mark down its growth and inflation forecasts. The deceleration will likely be enough to convince the FOMC that the downside risks to its dual objectives of maximum employment and stable prices need to be addressed. However, given the ambiguity in the Federal Reserve Act about how to weigh these objectives against each other, disagreement within the FOMC itself about the relative weights and Bernanke's efforts to create a more democratic process for decision-making, progress on another QE package is likely to be slow and full of compromise. Eventually though, we believe that a package of Treasury and MBS purchases of US$500-750 billion will arrive some time between March and June.

Questions? Comments? Email us at NetNet@cnbc.com

Follow John on Twitter @ twitter.com/Carney

Follow NetNet on Twitter @ twitter.com/CNBCnetnet

Facebook us @ www.facebook.com/NetNetCNBC



More From CNBC
 
  • Bongo Drums  •  4 months ago
    Japan has eased 10 times or so over the last 20 years (two lost decades now) with no effect but our third round of easing is supposed to be the answer for all our problems.

    Yeah, right.
    • Dave W 4 months ago
      Well, not no effect. Every time they did it their stock market rose. Every time they stopped it plunged. For as long as they have continued to do it, and support their zombie banks/corporations, they have remained in a depression. So there are plenty of effects! :-)
    • Middle of the Road 4 months ago
      @ Bongo - as Dave says, you don't know what the effect would have been if they hadn't done it. They are better off now than they were. They had gotten in a HUGE hole and it is taking a long time to get out of it. One of the problems they had, which we have, is when people lost confidence the savings rate tripled and that reduced investment in the economy which reduced job growth.
    • Tim Arnold 4 months ago
      good NEWS none has to be repaid it free thank you uncle ben has picture is on the rice box
  • DavidJ  •  4 months ago
    QE = theft

    Devaluing the currency is the same thing as stealing a portion of every dollar already in circulation.
    • Schmoozie J 4 months ago
      Correct. If the fed and the government would have let the big banks fail years ago, the USA would have been beyond the worse of things now and would be in a better spot. Another QE is just going to make the collapse that much worse.
    • Merle 4 months ago
      Right and that is exactly why we will have another round of QE (3) AND THEN 4, 5, 6, ....
    • Dave W 4 months ago
      So, buy gold and avoid the theft. Their alternative is the more direct theft of taxation. They're going to get the money one way or another though ... stop imagining that they are good people ... they're not ... they're the worst kind of people ... purely self-interested, utterly destructive, entirely immoral.
  • Coppertop  •  4 months ago
    By the FEDs own admission, another QE would have virtually no effect.
    • Dave W 4 months ago
      Sure it would ... it would help the TBTF banks stay somewhat solvent by handing off toxic paper to the Fed.
  • RichardL  •  Fayetteville, Arkansas  •  4 months ago
    The pain this country would have experienced will pale in comparison to what suffering we will experience as a result of massive increases in our national debt and continuing deficits.
    Typically, politicians sweep the sorrow under the rug until it is too late. Well, it is too late.
    Wait for the hyperinflation in years to come. It will erode the wealth of the middle class.
    • BWa 4 months ago
      More reason to buy a house now.. also.. buy one on some land in a good climate so you can grow food year round.
    • skjlaw 4 months ago
      There is middle class wealth left?
  • Ken  •  Phoenix, Arizona  •  4 months ago
    I smell something burning.....Rome is that you?
    • Cicero's Ghost 4 months ago
      "...civis Romanus sum",aka, Ich bin eine Berliner.
    • Harry 4 months ago
      I think it's the coffee burning.
    • Bob F 4 months ago
      Burning? Oh- They must be cooking the books.
  • Jim  •  4 months ago
    It should read, "FED goes insane". Doing the same thing expecting different results, should we expect QE3, QE4, QE5, QE6……. The problem is debt, adding more debt will not make things better but only add to the problems.

    Devaluing your currency will not bring prosperity.
  • Deb  •  4 months ago
    If deficits don't matter and the feds can print all the fake money they want, then, logically speaking, there would be no need to pay taxes.
  • DON P  •  Costa Mesa, California  •  4 months ago
    Employment up, claims down, consumer buying great, dealers selling cars, home sales up, all in the AP in the last week, so why the adjustment? Congress fabrications?
  • John  •  Youngstown, Ohio  •  4 months ago
    Bring on QE3!!! That way, I can round up my yearly grocery price increases to an even 100%.
  • wakeup  •  Eugene, Oregon  •  4 months ago
    It's been a masked depression since 2008. Take away $4 trillion debt to prop up this failed pseudo-capitalistic system, and take away an additional $15 trillion of other federal debt, including state and local government debt from overpaid government employees and you can easily see what this economy is about. State and local government debt is claimed to be $3 trillion but others estimate it to be closer to $5 trillion. Where is this money coming from?

    Little do people know that if you just reduce the size of government and pay them what is paid in the private sector, $850 billion would be saved each year. Over 10 years this is $8.5 trillion. We have had over 20 year of this nonsense! Anyone running for president would get elected if they spouted these numbers and claimed they would do something about it.
  • Nobody  •  Irvine, California  •  4 months ago
    Shouldn't that read "Fed Will Be Forced to Monetize Again Soon"?
  • Mad  •  4 months ago
    I have to admit, the government has successfully forced people to spend their money before its devalued. I am a saver, but I am in the proccess of converting my cash, into physical assets. I am closing on a home next week even though I know that the price can still fall much much more, and I am pouncing on gold and silver as it goes down. The dollar is getting looted and I every day I leave a dollar in my account, its purchasing power drops.

    We are experiencing a brief rally in the dolllar due to the catastrophy in Europe. However, that will not last forever and when all this printing comes home to roost, we are all in big trouble. Good luck to everyone in the times ahead.
  • Two Cents  •  4 months ago
    Another mistake waiting to happen. All QEs are failures. Doing the wrong thing over and over and expecting a different outcome, why didnt i think of that?
  • Dr. Wyjablowitz  •  4 months ago
    Geez....our Fed Reserve Chairman has already embraced the role of glorified drug dealer:
    "Psst....psst....I got some QE right here man, what ya need?? This is GOOOD stuff man!"
  • wakeup  •  Eugene, Oregon  •  4 months ago
    Oh really? The other stock pumping stories say the economic data is good.

    You cannot have it both ways!

    These are all stock pumping stories!
  • RichardL  •  Fayetteville, Arkansas  •  4 months ago
    I know this. Every trillion dollars in debt that this country is in MEANS each individual (baby, teenager, adult, senior citizen) owes about $3,000.00 per trillion in debt. Currently, 14 trillion in debt as a nation = $42,000.00 owed by each and every person alive in this country.
  • Wags  •  4 months ago
    In the long run, central banks inflate the money supply. The power to create money out of thin air is too tempting to resist.
  • richardt  •  4 months ago
    Translation: The easing will be required because the Euro will decline and make US exports too expensive. The government also welcomes the chance to print more money because it is now addicted to debt far beyond the level of a heroin addict. The major banks which are the stockholders of the Federal Reserve, want money to be printed too so that eventually the housing market can inflate once again, thus, solving their insolvency problem.
  • Gen X Rules  •  4 months ago
    Yeah and why don't you take a look at the facts. Eighteen months ago when oil was $70 a barrel the economy was doing much better, now since the Feds QE2, QE3, the economy and job market is much worse despite what all these propoganda stories try to sell to people.
  • Mike M  •  4 months ago
    QE = Implicit Tax Increase through dollar devaluation. No vote. No congressional oversight. Just a private company (the Federal Reserve) deciding to print more Federal Reserve notes (those things you people carry around in your wallets). Nice!
Loading...
 
Recent Quotes
Symbol Price Change % Chg 
Your most recently viewed tickers will automatically show up here if you type a ticker in the "Enter symbol/company" at the bottom of this module.
You need to enable your browser cookies to view your most recent quotes.
 
Sign-in to view quotes in your portfolios.

Yahoo! Finance on Facebook

  YAHOO! FINANCE ON TWITTER