First Person: Predicting the Future Value of My Home

I'd like to sell my home as soon as I retire in another 30 years so I can move to a beachfront property. However, in order to make the move, I'll need to have a home that is worth something. Predicting the future value of my Florida home is tricky, considering there are unknown variables and factors that come into play. However, I decided to make the best stab at what my home will be worth by looking at the current research and statistics.

Bouncing back from the bubble

Most of the homes in my area are now bouncing back from the housing bubble. According to an article by U. S. News & World Report, experts in early 2010 were expecting housing values would only increase 1 to 2 percent more than the inflation rate over the next 10 years. However, homes in my Florida subdivision have been appreciating much more rapidly since the housing bottom at the end of 2010. I anticipate the long-term appreciations rates will stand up as being more reliable.

Forecasting the appreciation rates

According to Forecastchart.com, homes in Florida appreciated 72 percent over a 20-year period. Since I had my home recently appraised, I had the chance to talk to an appraiser about what I can expect in the future. She said new homes in our area tend to appreciate at about 4.2 percent annually over the long term. I also checked charts that estimated how owner-occupied homes in my price range appreciated, but the sources seemed completely unreliable. According to one site, homes in the \$150,000 to \$199,999 price range in my city appreciate by as much as 23.63 percent versus the 14.87 national appreciation rate. I rend to think my appraiser has a better grasp on appreciation rates.

Using an appreciation calculator

By putting in my figures into a potential home appreciation calculator, I'm able to see how much my home would be worth if I saw an appreciation rate of 4.2 percent ever year. In 30 years, my home would be worth \$628,756 with an overall appreciation of 243.6 percent.

Taking age into consideration

Even though my home may appreciate, the prices of other homes are sure to be higher as well. I would probably have to spend a lot of money for my home to sell in the \$600,000 range, even in another 30 years. I can imagine the beachfront property home I would be buying would cost at least \$1.2 million or twice as much as the future value of my house. With that in mind, I need to consider carefully whether I'm saving enough for retirement or if I need to downscale my future housing desires. I also may need to put aside money for home renovations so that my house is still marketable in the future.

If I am forced to retire in place, the value of my home and its appreciation may be irrelevant for me.

*Note: This was written by a Yahoo! contributor. Do you have a personal finance story that you'd like to share? Sign up with the Yahoo! Contributor Network to start publishing your own finance articles.

More from this contributor:

Recommended for You

• Former Google patent chief walks through USPTO revolving door

Hereâ€™s something America needs more of: Former high-ranking industry executives taking on crucial positions at key government regulatory agencies. Reuters reports thatÂ Michelle Lee, who previously served as Googleâ€™s head of patent strategy, has been namedÂ deputy director of the U.S. Patent andâ€¦

BGR News
• Credit Cards Are Now Offering 0% APR Through 2015

Consumers can now get rid of high interest rates and get 0% APR for 18 months. Compare these leading 2013 credit card offers and find your best offer.

• Top Ten 2014 eCommerce Trends

In many ways 2013 was a banner year for eCommerce; online sales increased overall and sales on Cyber Monday increased over 20% to become the single biggest online shopping day in history. For more on what went down in the world of eCommerce in 2013 and what role social and other trends played checkâ€¦

• Great expectations for an investment rotation

After years of sticking with plain-vanilla bond funds, investors are starting to turn their backs on them and opt for stocks instead. The move isn't big enough to be the "great rotation" from ...

Associated Press
• Those Terrible Bag Fees Are Keeping The Airline Industry Afloat

The global airline industry should see...

• 5 Tips for Gifting in the Workplace

Every person surveyed regarding receiving gifts came back to one main idea: "I really appreciate it when someone takes the time to express their gratitude." That is great news to cash-strapped employees who have many other places to spend their hard-earned dollars. Many employees said they reallyâ€¦

U.S.News & World Report LP
• Korean court says Apple did not violate Samsung patents

A Seoul court has denied Samsung's claim that Apple violated three of its patent related to short message services.

San Jose Mercury News
• Play

Pope not thinking about benefactors: Greenberg

CNBC's Herb Greenberg, Simon Hobbs, Seema Mody and CNBC contributor Greg Ip discuss Pope Francis' criticism on capitalism and high salaries.

CNBC Videos
• New Parents: Start Saving for Your Kid's College Now

The cost of higher education keeps on going up, and so does student loan debt. Contributing to a college savings account can reduce the burden later.

Credit.com
• AmTrust Says â€˜Never Been Strongerâ€™ After Insurerâ€™s Shares Plunge

AmTrust Financial Services Inc. said its outlook remains positive after the stock fell as much as 20 percent following a report by GeoInvesting that challenged the insurerâ€™s accounting.

Bloomberg
• Oil drops as U.S. gasoline supplies jump

Oil futures close lower on a weekly jump in U.S. gasoline inventories that was about three times more than expected.

MarketWatch
• Restaurant Stock of the Year: Wendy's

Thanks to a combination of menu creativity, a continuing image revamp and big rewards for shareholders, Wendy's is our chain restaurant stock of the year for 2013.

The Exchange
• Sumitomo Mitsui in \$1.1 Billion Deal for U.S. Rail Car Leasing Business

Perella Weinberg Partners sells its Chicago-based rail car leasing business, once owned by A.I.G., to Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation of Japan.

The New York Times
• Rupee weakens for second day on Fed taper worries, data eyed

Worries of sustained inflationary pressures in the economy also prompted investors to short the domestic currency, with the government due to announce November retail price inflation data and October factory output data after market hours. Asian shares stumbled to a 2-1/2 month low on Thursday onâ€¦

Reuters
• Mortgage Rates Hit 2.75% (2.86% APR)

Mortgage rates are back down this month to 2.75% (2.86% APR) on 5/1 ARM. Get a great rate and start saving money. Calculate your payment.

• Lawsuit: Deputy forced man to kneel on hot asphalt

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) â€” An Albuquerque man suffered severe burns to his knees and buttocks after a Bernalillo County sheriff's deputy forced him to kneel and sit on hot asphalt for nearly half an hour, according to a federal civil rights lawsuit.

Associated Press
• Oil little changed as demand concerns linger

Oil prices barely budged Thursday, as concern about weak demand for gasoline and diesel fuel offset solid retail sales data in the U.S. Benchmark U.S. oil for January delivery rose 6 cents to close \$97.50 ...

Associated Press
• Play

Trulia's Top 5 Housing Market Predictions for 2014

Trulia's Chief Economist Jed Kolko says buying a home in 2014 will be less affordable as prices continue to rise and rental activity picks up in urban areas. TheStreet's Ruben Ramirez has more from Wall Street.

TheStreet.com Videos
• The Most Harrowing Days of My Life

The reasons why I suffered a nervous breakdown are none of your business. What is the business of anyone who cares about mental health is that the most harrowing days of my life were when I recently tried to get help for a mental illness.

Huffington Post
• The Seven Habits of Lackadaisical Job Seekers

WARNING: Occasionally I lapse into tough love mode when trying to get the attention of those who are carelessly hurting themselves and their loved ones. This is one of those times. Over the years, I have seen more than my share of job seekers lose their marriages, their homes, and more due to beingâ€¦