First Person: Predicting the Future Value of My Home

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I'd like to sell my home as soon as I retire in another 30 years so I can move to a beachfront property. However, in order to make the move, I'll need to have a home that is worth something. Predicting the future value of my Florida home is tricky, considering there are unknown variables and factors that come into play. However, I decided to make the best stab at what my home will be worth by looking at the current research and statistics.

Bouncing back from the bubble

Most of the homes in my area are now bouncing back from the housing bubble. According to an article by U. S. News & World Report, experts in early 2010 were expecting housing values would only increase 1 to 2 percent more than the inflation rate over the next 10 years. However, homes in my Florida subdivision have been appreciating much more rapidly since the housing bottom at the end of 2010. I anticipate the long-term appreciations rates will stand up as being more reliable.

Forecasting the appreciation rates

According to Forecastchart.com, homes in Florida appreciated 72 percent over a 20-year period. Since I had my home recently appraised, I had the chance to talk to an appraiser about what I can expect in the future. She said new homes in our area tend to appreciate at about 4.2 percent annually over the long term. I also checked charts that estimated how owner-occupied homes in my price range appreciated, but the sources seemed completely unreliable. According to one site, homes in the $150,000 to $199,999 price range in my city appreciate by as much as 23.63 percent versus the 14.87 national appreciation rate. I rend to think my appraiser has a better grasp on appreciation rates.

Using an appreciation calculator

By putting in my figures into a potential home appreciation calculator, I'm able to see how much my home would be worth if I saw an appreciation rate of 4.2 percent ever year. In 30 years, my home would be worth $628,756 with an overall appreciation of 243.6 percent.

Taking age into consideration

Even though my home may appreciate, the prices of other homes are sure to be higher as well. I would probably have to spend a lot of money for my home to sell in the $600,000 range, even in another 30 years. I can imagine the beachfront property home I would be buying would cost at least $1.2 million or twice as much as the future value of my house. With that in mind, I need to consider carefully whether I'm saving enough for retirement or if I need to downscale my future housing desires. I also may need to put aside money for home renovations so that my house is still marketable in the future.

If I am forced to retire in place, the value of my home and its appreciation may be irrelevant for me.

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