Fitch Affirms Port Authority of New York & New Jersey's Consolidated Bonds 'AA-'

Business Wire

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--

Fitch Ratings affirms the ratings on the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey's outstanding debt as follows:

--$18 billion in consolidated bonds at 'AA-';

--Commercial paper (CP) notes, series A (AMT) (tax-exempt) at 'F1+', authorized up to $300 million;

--CP notes series B (Non-AMT) (tax-exempt) at 'F1+', authorized up to $200 million.

The Rating Outlook on the authority's consolidated bonds is Stable.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

--Resilient Cash Flows And Stable Revenue Base: The authority has a monopolistic position over an expansive, diverse portfolio of transportation and commerce related assets, including four metropolitan New York/New Jersey airports, an interstate transportation network (tunnels, bridges, terminals, and ferries), and seaports. Strong demand characteristics for these commerce related assets are underpinned by the region's diverse and populous economy as well as its status as a global center for economic activity. Revenue Risk-Volume: Stronger

--High Degree Of Rate-Setting Flexibility: The authority has demonstrated an ability to produce consistently healthy financial performance reinforced by the cost recovery nature of use agreements in place primarily at the airports and timely toll increases. Given toll rates following the series of increases now being phased in and the importance of not impeding regional economic activity, while Fitch believes economic rate-making flexibility exists, policy flexibility may be more constrained. Revenue Risk-Price: Stronger

--Conservative Capital Structure: The authority maintains a nearly 100% fixed-rate capital structure. Fitch expects any future variable rate debt issued by the authority would be relatively limited. Debt Structure: Stronger

--Moderate Leverage Levels and Strong Coverage Ratios: Leverage levels are moderate, with net debt to cash available for debt service (CFADS) in 2012 at 7.8 times (x). The moderate leverage position is partially offset with significant balance sheet liquidity, legally required reserve levels, ability to control operating and maintenance costs, and a demonstrated history of generating debt service coverage ratios (DSCRs) over 2.0x. Debt Service: Stronger

--Established Asset Base With Reinvestment Needs: The authority's broad base of long-established infrastructure assets results in an approximately $25 billion capital plan, though recent completed audit reports indicate capital needs may be significantly greater than presently expected over the next 10 to 15 years. Fitch will continue to review developments with respect to the authority's capital program, specifically the authority's attention to maintenance of the asset base as well as expected leverage levels. Infrastructure Development/Renewal: Midrange

RATING SENSITIVITIES

--Weaker financial margins due to slow revenue growth and/or higher rates of growth in operating expenses;

--Significant escalation in expected capital needs and additional leveraging not supported by commensurate revenue increases to maintain DSCRs at or above 1.8x-2.0x;

--Actions by either the State of New York or New Jersey to limit the authority's ability to raise tolls to cover growing debt service obligations.

SECURITY

Consolidated bonds and notes are secured by net revenues of the authority and a pledge of the general reserve and consolidated bond reserve funds.

CREDIT UPDATE

The authority's strong margins largely reflect a stable revenue profile, even during the most recent recession, and an ability to grow revenues to meet escalating debt service obligations. Consistent with past performance, the authority posted healthy financial results in 2012, primarily supported by the toll rate adjustment implemented in September 2011 and on-going tight control over operations and maintenance expenses. In 2012, debt service coverage per the indenture was a robust 3.09x, in line with 3.11x level in 2011 and above the 2.73x recorded in 2010.

Operating revenue in fiscal 2012 grew 5.7%, somewhat lower than budgeted growth of 7.7% reflecting in part traffic performance that was below expectations and declines in PATH ridership due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy. Operating expenses in 2012 grew slightly by 0.6% as compared with a budgeted reduction of 2.6% with the difference resulting in part from higher policing and security costs and write-downs related to engineering and capital costs. For fiscal 2013, the authority is presently expecting 3.6% revenue growth while continued efforts to contain costs are projected to result in a 1.1% decline in operating expenditures. Through mid-year, authority revenue performance was estimated at $18.4 million below initial budget projections while operating expenditures were below budget estimates by approximately $14.3 million.

While the September 2011 multi-phased toll and PATH fare increases had been expected to allow the authority to maintain its financial profile while continuing with its complex and costly capital plan, Fitch is concerned that slower than expected revenue growth may create difficultly in completing the plan as last envisioned. The results of the audit process requested by the governors of New York and New Jersey indicate a significant amount of capital needs are on the authority's horizon, though such needs are currently being factored into the authority's capital planning. Additionally, the impact of Hurricane Sandy has triggered a reprioritization of capital needs and a revised plan is expected shortly. Fitch understands that some flexibility in the undertaking of these projects is likely and Fitch expects that the authority will continue to adjust its levels of capital spending to generate DSCRs consistent with the current rating. Should future authority capital plans call for a marked changed in the authority's leverage or historically solid liquidity levels, downward pressure on credit quality would be likely.

A key ongoing risk to the credit is the authority's funding participation in redevelopment of the WTC site. In 2011, the authority issued approximately $1.67 billion in consolidated bonds on construction and rebuilding efforts at the site. This elevated level of spending for the WTC site continued in 2012, with the authority budgeting approximately $2 billion in order to substantially complete the rebuilding efforts. Due to the high priority of this project, the authority has deferred certain capital projects at LaGuardia Airport (LGA), Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR), and the Port Authority's Bus Terminal although the revision to the plan will likely accelerate projects for these facilities.

Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'.

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:

--'Rating Criteria for Infrastructure and Project Finance' (July 12, 2012);

--'Rating Criteria for Toll Roads, Bridges, and Tunnels' (Aug. 5, 2012);

--'Rating Criteria for Ports' (Sept. 27, 2012);

--'Rating Criteria for Airports' (Nov. 27, 2012).

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:

Rating Criteria for Infrastructure and Project Finance

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=682867

Rating Criteria for Toll Roads, Bridges, and Tunnels

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=684146

Rating Criteria for Ports

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=688850

Rating Criteria for Airports

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=695600

Additional Disclosure

Solicitation Status

http://www.fitchratings.com/gws/en/disclosure/solicitation?pr_id=797335

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Contact:
Fitch Ratings
Primary Analyst
Kenneth T. Weinstein, +1-212-908-0571
Senior Director
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
One State Street Plaza
New York, NY 10004
or
Secondary Analyst
Saavan Gatfield, +1-212-908-0542
Senior Director
or
Committee Chairperson
Scott Zuchorski, +1-212-908-0659
Director
or
Media Relations, New York
Elizabeth Fogerty, +1-212-908-0526
elizabeth.fogerty@fitchratings.com

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