Focus Shifts to Bank of Japan


General focus has shifted to BoJ tonight. Technically, 92.16-92.90 is viewed as important. The area is defined by the 2/8, 2/15, and 3/5 lows. A downtrend has developed from the March high but with price at support now shorting is not warranted. A rally on BoJ into resistance would present a short opportunity (look to AUDJPY too).

Was stopped out on GBPUSD longs at 1.5090 (slightly worse than breakeven) last night. Price is trading higher now which isn't all that surprising-mentioned in the technicals last night that a drop below 1.5090 could complete a flat correction. Also mentioned however that "with the rally from the March low failing at the 2012 low, I’m quick to pull the trigger on longs at 1.5090. We can always get back in if conditions warrant". BoE is tomorrow and we could get an opportunity to enter then.

No change to EURUSD other than it's on the 'watchlist' for longs.

The AUDUSD short from last week (which started off working well) is nearing the stop on daily close 1.0500 level. Nothing to do here other than sit tight. If price rolls over, then the decline will probably be sharp. If a close is registered above 1.0500, then I'm out.

Jamie Saettele, CMT

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