Forex Markets Look to G20 Summit to Guide Risk Sentiment Trends

DailyFX

Forex traders are focused on growth-themed rhetoric emerging from a G20 summit in Washington DC amid lingering fears about a faltering global recovery.

Talking Points

  • FX Markets Look to G20 Summit to Guide Risk Sentiment Trends
  • Pound Unlikely to Find Significant Volatility in UK Retail Sales Data

The spotlight is on a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, with traders watching the newswires for leaks from the draft communiqué due to emerge at the end of the two-day summit. Policymakers are likely to toe a familiar line on exchange rates, sounding off against competitive devaluation but falling short of offering any detailed measures or singling out specific offenders.

Comments on the state of the global recovery offer greater market-moving potential in the context of mounting concerns that erupted into large-scale risk aversion at the start of the week. Supportive rhetoric is likely to weigh on the safe-haven US Dollar and Japanese Yen against their major counterparts (and vice versa).

On the data front, UK Retail Sales figures headline the docket in European trading hours. Expectations call for the year-on-year growth rate to slow to 0.9 percent in March after yielding the largest increase in nearly five years in the prior month. The outcome has been amply foreshadowed by an analogous metric from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) last week and so seems unlikely to yield a lasting response from the British Pound absent a major deviation from expectations.

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Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

ANZ NZ Job Ads (MoM) (MAR)

0.7%

-

1.8%

23:50

JPY

Merchandise Trade Balance Total (¥) (MAR)

-362.4B

-522.2B

-779.5B

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (¥)(MAR)

-922.0B

-934.5B

-1092.5B

23:50

JPY

Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (MAR)

5.5%

6.3%

11.9%

23:50

JPY

Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (MAR)

1.1%

0.2%

-2.9%

1:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (APR)

119.2

-

114.8

1:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (APR)

3.8%

-

-5.1%

1:30

AUD

RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (A$) (MAR)

577M

-

328M

1:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Other (A$) (MAR)

71M

-

26M

1:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Govt. (A$) (MAR)

-624M

-

-345M

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (1Q)

2

-

-5

2:00

CNY

Actual FDI (YoY) (MAR)

5.7%

1.9%

6.3%

4:00

JPY

Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (MAR)

48.4%

-

-10.9%

5:30

JPY

Nationwide Dept Store Sales (YoY) (MAR)

3.9%

-

0.3%

5:30

JPY

Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (MAR)

6.4%

-

2.5%

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

-

-

G20 FinMin and CB Governors’ Meeting – Day 1

-

-

High

8:30

EUR

Spain to Sell 2016, 2018 and 2023 Bonds

-

-

Low

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAR)

-0.6%

1.9%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAR)

0.9%

3.3%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales w/ Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAR)

-0.6%

2.1%

Low

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales w/ Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAR)

-0.2%

2.6%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Current Account (€) (FEB)

-

-4607M

Low

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2956

1.3154

GBPUSD

1.5179

1.5335

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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