TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OUTLOOK
USD/JPY: No change from yesterday: “While the Evening Star candle cluster has failed to materialize, the Doji / Shooting Star candle on Wednesday, when considered alongside the daily RSI starting to contract from its already-overbought levels, the USD/JPY looks near-term bearish. Support comes in at 81.75, 81.15, and 80.50/70 (former November high). Resistance is 82.90/83.00 and 83.30/55.”
GBP/USD: No change from yesterday: “Friday’s advance has brought the GBP/USD back into long-term trendline resistance, at 1.6035/55 (descending trendline resistance off of the April 2011 and April 2012 highs). This coincides with a potential break of the downtrend that’s been in place for the past two months, though a retest of former resistance at 1.5975 and ensuing bounce would strengthen the case for a run back towards 1.6300. Resistance comes in at 1.6170/80 (late-October highs). Support is 1.5965/75 (20-EMA, 50-EMA), 1.5895/1.5900 (100-DMA), and 1.5850/55 (200-DMA).”
AUD/USD: As the pair has traded towards its Symmetrical Triangle termination point, and appears to be making a move to the upside; when considered in the big picture, the current pause witnessed the past year or so may be viewed as a consolidation. Support is at 1.0365/85 (trendline support off of the June 1 and October 23 lows) and 1.0235/80. Resistance is 1.0475/80 (breaking now) (November high) and 1.0500/15. Support is 1.0450, 1.0370/1.0405.
S&P 500: No change: “The rally off of the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement (June 2012 low to September 2012 high) has carried the S&P 500 back into a confluence of resistance at 1400/10 (20-EMA, 50-EMA, 100-EMA). A breakout above this area would suggest a more substantial rebound may yet be ahead. Support comes in at 1385 (200-DMA) and 1345/50 (November low). Resistance comes in at 1425 and 1460.”
GOLD: No change: “Fresh November highs are in place after Friday’s rally, and with the US fiscal cliff/slope negotiations grinding slower, there may be some upside yet. I still expect the 1700 area to be defended vigorously on declines, and will continue to look to get long as low as 1675. Resistance is 1755/58 and 1785/1805. Support is 1735, 1700, 1685/90 (100-DMA, November low), and 1660/65 (200-DMA).”
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