Markets had nice two-way action yesterday before finally finding a new pivot low. The question is: will it stick? The new pivot on the S&P is 1485, which is above the 50day at 1478 and the September highs of 1474.
Micro resistance is 1498 then the 8- and 21-day MAs that curl down at 1504-1506 with a trend line at 1511 (this line needs to hold for bears to keep short term control, in my opinion.) Today the futures are basically flat as Italy had a decent auction and world markets are mixed. Today Ben Bernanke's Congressional testimony continues as we grow closer to the sequester noise.
At this point I remain flexible as there are things to do but I'm not ready to change my tactical stance back to portfolio approach. Most sectors are trying to figure out if they can find pivot support or if they need to correct more.
Tech remains mixed. GOOG is trying to hold higher but it remains a bit hard to trust as typically leaders get hit if corrections continue. It's testing the 8-day with a new pivot at $784 and bigger support at $777. LNKD remains very strong, and if that continues and the stock holds above $155 it could be looking to for new highs soon. $161.70 decent resistance. NFLX is trying to put in floor at $175.50.Above $187 perhaps it could get back in motion.
FB has been in corrective mode since earnings. It tried to reverse a bit yesterday. The new pivot is $26.70. Above $27.75 it could look a little better. YHOO still looks decent but needs time.
AAPL has it's Investor Day. AAPL often sells down on event days, but it hasn't really spiked into this one in the first place. It would be nice if this one is different.. There was some action yesterday. See if has some commitment. The recent low that held yesterday is $435ish. For it to look better, it needs to take out $453-455 with heavy volume.
Banks reversed yesterday but still need time--continue to let new support build. The 50day is $17.12 for XLF. XHB- this group has been weaker but bounced pretty strong yesterday. See if $27 can hold moving forward as it's a pretty big trend line from months back. The Ags already filled their gap that started the year. This group has proven to be the laggard as of now.
Retail has been tricky. The RTH is trying to hold the pivot that started the year, and it's above the 50day but hard to trust.
WMT after all the hoopala this has been acting better. For it to get in motion it needs to get above $71.70-$72ish. This was my retail pick of the year in 2012.
HD very impressive near historic highs. This was my retail stock of focus for a macro move two years back. KORS corrected a bit and filled the earnings gap after the secondary a few sessions back. It finally reversed yesterday with a Red Dog Reversak. The new pivot low is $57.
Metals has a nice bounce off macro support as the markets corrected and Bernanke came off more dovish.
Gold is opening down a bit today. In order to see if the bounce can continue you need to measure the retracement. For GLD to be any good it should hold $154.50-$155, in my opinion.
*DISCLOSURES: Scott J. Redler is long SPY, AAPL, FB.
- Ben Bernanke