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The Gap Inc. Fourth Quarter Earnings Sneak Peek

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S&P 500 component The Gap, Inc. will unveil its latest earnings on Thursday, February 23, 2012. The Gap is an international specialty retailer that sells casual apparel, accessories and personal care products for men, women, and children.

The Gap, Inc. Earnings Preview Cheat Sheet

Wall St. Earnings Expectations: The average analyst estimate is for profit of 42 cents per share, a decline of 30% from the company’s actual earnings for the year-ago quarter. During the past three months, the average estimate has moved up from 38 cents. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate moved down. It has risen from 35 cents during the last month. Analysts are projecting profit to rise by 18.1% compared to last year’s $1.54.

Past Earnings Performance: The company has beaten estimates the last four quarters and is coming off a quarter where it topped forecasts by one cent, reporting net income of 38 cents per share against a mean estimate of profit of 37 cents per share.

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Wall St. Revenue Expectations: Analysts are projecting a decline of 1.8% in revenue from the year-earlier quarter to $4.28 billion.

Analyst Ratings: Analysts seem relatively indifferent about Gap with 20 of 28 analysts surveyed maintaining a hold rating.

A Look Back: In the third quarter, profit fell 36.3% to $193 million (38 cents a share) from $303 million (48 cents a share) the year earlier, but exceeded analyst expectations. Revenue fell 1.9% to $3.58 billion from $3.65 billion.

Key Stats:

For three straight quarters, The Gap Inc. has experienced declining net income. Net income fell 19.2% in the second quarter and 22.8% in the first quarter.

Revenue fell in the third quarter after seeing a rise the quarter before. In the second quarter, revenue rose 2.1%.

Stock Price Performance: Between December 20, 2011 and February 17, 2012, the stock price had risen $4.44 (24.3%), from $18.28 to $22.72. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between February 8, 2012 and February 17, 2012, when shares rose for eight straight days, increasing 6.8% (+$1.44) over that span. It saw one of its worst periods between November 11, 2011 and November 25, 2011 when shares fell for 10 straight days, dropping 13.4% (-$2.70) over that span.

(Company fundamentals by Xignite Financials. Earnings estimates provided by Zacks)

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