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GARY SHILLING: 9 Investment Ideas For The Current Risk-On World (A. Gary Shilling's Insight)
"We believe that a "risk on" investment climate still prevails, despite the many warning signs related to economic growth and financial markets here and abroad," according to Gary Shilling. "So we continue our defensive stance towards equities and suggest Treasurys as a safe haven and beneficiary of possible deflation, especially in the eurozone."
In this environment he likes nine investments. 1. Treasury bonds; 2. Selected income-producing securities; 3. Small luxuries; 4. Consumer staples and foods; 5. The U.S. dollar against the euro; 6. Selected health-care providers and medical office buildings; 7. Low P/E stocks; 8. Productivity enhancers; 9. North American energy producers ex renewables. "We've deleted our shorts on the Australian and Canadian dollars, which have risen as investors anticipate faster growth in China and increased demand for commodities," he writes. "For the same reason, we've deleted our shorts on commodities, especially copper."
3 Reasons To Invest In Frontier Markets (BlackRock Blog)
Frontier market stocks have been doing better than emerging market stocks. But Russ Koesterich at BlackRock Blog writes that investors have been approaching frontier stocks too narrowly. He thinks investors should have a small portfolio allocation to frontier stocks for three reasons.
1. "The potential diversification benefit:" Globalization has means that in recent years emerging and developed market stocks have become more correlated. "Most of the countries that dominate frontier markets, on the other hand, are very locally oriented," he writes. "In short, with frontier markets, you’re potentially getting back a little bit of that lost diversification benefit that you used to get from investing in emerging markets."
2. "Lower volatility:" "Because frontier market stocks are less correlated with each other compared with the correlation between equities of various emerging markets, frontier market stocks’ volatility has historically been below that of emerging markets," writes Koesterich.
3. "Faster growth:" These economies are expected to grow faster than emerging and developed economies, driven in late part by their demographics, and because of growing per capita income.
UBS Duo Departs For Wells Fargo (Reuters)
Wells Fargo has hired a team of advisors from UBS Financial, reports Elizabeth Dilts at Reuters. Robert Higley and Robert Gardner III managed a combined $300 million in assets and had $2.5 million in production at UBS. Gardner and Higley left the Houston-Galleria branch of UBS. A four person team left UBS' Houston office earlier this year.
Two thirds of business owners don't have a formal succession plan in place,according to the U.S Trust 2014 Insights on Wealth and Worth report. But those with a financial advisor are twice as likely to have one, than those without. It is often argued that succession planning can help provide a source of income to business owners.
Bullish Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel told CNBC that the Dow could hit 20,000 by the end of 2014. The Dow closed above 17,000 for the first time on Thursday. ""I think we're going to get to 18 [thousand] and above. Could it go to 19, 20? It could. I'm not going to say that's the likely event, but so many people have missed this bull market that they start saying, 'Hey, you know, this is my last chance.'" Why is that?
"The so-called "New Neutral", as Pimco called it, as Bill Gross calls it, really does — as he admits himself — argue for higher valuations in the market. So we shouldn't just think 15, 16 [times earnings]... the old historical normals are normal anymore because if the interest rate is really going to be lower — and I do believe that — we're looking at 18 and 19."
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