GBPUSD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- Breach of the 1.54-barrier noted last week has maintained a bullish outlook
- Topside objective now in view at 1.5586 (50% Retrace of 2013 range) - Breech threatens 1.5680
- Confluence with current operative channel resistance points to possible pivot tomorrow/late this week
- Decline off the yearly high points to a 2 1/2 month cycle- brings into focus May 14th calendar date- May opening range to offer clarity on medium-term biases
- Looking for extremely nimble intra-day longs, with rallies offering favorable short entries sub-1.5586
- RSI trendline trigger break to offer conviction on short scalps
- Working on 5th consecutive daily rally- Similar to price action seen 9/17 before turning over
- Break below 1.5407 (on a close basis) invalidates bullish bias- offers conviction on short scalps
- Main events to watch this week: US NFP print on Friday
GBPUSD Scalp Chart
Scalp Notes: Bottom Line: Still likely to see a run-up into 1.5585 to satisfy a 50% retracement of the entire 2013 range- Breech and close above this would be bullish. Strong GDP data has kept the pound afloat but could start to fizzle ahead this key level. Attempting intra-day shorts against this threshold with RSI conviction- Look to Friday's NFP print to charge some volatility as well with the May opening range likely to be very telling as we head into next week. The 30min RSI signature has been constructive since the start of the week, with only a break below the 40-threshold and a move sub 1.5407 green-lighting our bearish bias. Such a scenario eyes a move back into the key support region noted last week at 1.5188-1.5265.
*We will remain flexible with our bias with a break below 1.54 eyeing subsequent support targets. It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases. Use this app to distinguish the various trade sessions.
Key Threshold Grid
|
Entry/Exit Targets |
Timeframe |
Level |
Significance |
|
Resistance Target 1 |
30min |
1.5556 |
61.8 Fib Extension |
|
Bearish Invalidation |
Daily |
1.5585 |
50% Retracement |
|
Break Target 1 |
30min |
1.5630 |
Soft Resistance / Pivot |
|
Break Target 2 |
30min |
1.5650 |
78.6% Fib Ext |
|
Break Target 3 |
Daily |
1.5680 |
38.2% 09' Retrace |
|
Break Target 5 |
Daily |
1.5750/60 |
61.8% Retrace/200DMA |
|
Support Target 1 |
30min |
1.5520 |
Soft Support / Pivot |
|
Support Target 3 |
30min |
1.5485 |
50% Fib Ext |
|
Support Target 2 |
30min |
1.5445 |
Soft Support / Pivot |
|
Bullish Invalidation |
Daily / 30min |
1.5407-1.5417 |
38.2% Retrce/38.2% Ext |
|
Break Target 1 |
30min |
1.5370 |
Soft Support / Pivot |
|
Break Target 2 |
30min |
1.5332 |
23.6% Retracement |
|
Break Target 3 |
30min |
1.5300 |
Big Figure/ Soft Pivot |
|
Break Target 4 |
30min |
1.5270 |
Soft Support |
|
Daily |
107 |
Profit Targets 24-26pips |
|
For updates on this scalp and more setups attend Michael’s Scalp Webinars or follow him on Twitter @MBForex
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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