THE GLOBAL TRADE SLOWDOWN HAS ENDED

Business Insider

November 1 is turning into an extremely busy day for economic data.

And one number you can't overlook is South Korean exports.

In October, exports jumped 1.2 percent from September's revised -2.0 percent.

Economists were looking for a 0.7 percent decline.

This is the strongest growth rate since February.

"South Korea’s exports and imports strengthened more than expected in October, confirming that the improvement in September was not just a one-off but the beginning of a trend, reflecting first and foremost the end of the Asian and global trade slowdown in the wake of China’s economy bottoming out," wrote Societe Generale economist Klaus Baader.

China's economic bottoming was confirmed further today by the improving Chinese manufacturing PMI, which signaled expansion in October.

Here's a chart from SocGen:


But Baader also warned, "Korean foreign trade may also be benefiting from Chinese demand being shifted away from Japanese good as political tensions in the island dispute continue."

Economists around the world pay careful attention to South Korea's exports as it is reliable proxy measure of demand in China, the second largest economy in the world. Goldman Sachs and UBS refer to it as the economy's "canary in the coalmine."

Click Here For Our Complete Global PMI Scorecard >

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