Gold, Crude Oil Gains Vulnerable on Soft US Data

DailyFX

Crude oil and gold prices are trading higher as a risk-on mood boosts cycle-sensitive assets and weighs on the US Dollar but the landscape is far from clear ahead.

Talking Points

  • Oil, Copper Rise with Risk Appetite But Durable Goods Data a Threat
  • Gold and Silver Find Support in Ebbing Haven Demand for US Dollar

Commodity prices are on the upswing as risk appetite firms across financial markets. Cycle-sensitive crude oil and copper prices are following stocks higher while gold and silver are finding a bit of support on ebbing haven demand for the US Dollar. S&P 500 index futures are trading flat however, hinting leaving the door open for a reversal. A disappointing US Durable Goods print may be enough to tip sentiment into negative territory, but the earnings docket could yet offer a counterbalance in the wake of upside surprises on reports from with cycle-sensitive Procter & Gamble, Ford and Boeing.

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WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $89.18 // -0.01 // -0.01%

Prices broke above resistance at 88.45, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. The bulls now target the 38.2% mark at 90.21, with a further push above that aiming for the 50% Fib at 91.63. Alternatively, a move back below 88.45 targets the 14.6% retracement at 87.37.

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Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Gains_Vulnreable_on_Soft_US_Data_body_Picture_3.png, Gold, Crude Oil Gains Vulnerable on Soft US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1413.00 // -13.45 // -0.94%

Prices put in a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance at 1434.43, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, hinting a move lower is ahead. Near-term support is at 1391.30, the 23.6% level, with a break beneath that aiming for the April 16 low at 1321.59. Alternatively, a push above 1434.43 aims for the 50% retracement at 1469.28.

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Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Gains_Vulnreable_on_Soft_US_Data_body_Picture_4.png, Gold, Crude Oil Gains Vulnerable on Soft US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $22.96 // -0.48 // -2.06%

Prices found interim support at 22.54, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term resistance is at 23.46, the 23.6% Fib retracement, with a break above that initially exposing the 38.2% level at 24.34. Alternatively, a drop below support aims for the 38.2% expansion at 21.66.

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Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Gains_Vulnreable_on_Soft_US_Data_body_Picture_5.png, Gold, Crude Oil Gains Vulnerable on Soft US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.132 // -0.016 // -0.51%

Prices are bouncing from support at 3.080, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion.Near-term resistance is at 3.151, the 61.8% expansion, with a break above that targeting the 50% mark at 3.208. Alternatively, a reversal below 3.080 aims for the 100% level at 2.965.

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Commodities_Gold_Crude_Oil_Gains_Vulnreable_on_Soft_US_Data_body_Picture_6.png, Gold, Crude Oil Gains Vulnerable on Soft US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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