Despite the savage losses incurred as gold prices plunged earlier this year, global central banks still desire gold, supporting precious metal prices and exchange traded funds.
According to the World Gold Council, central banks hold 18% of the gold every mined and will add another 350 tons, or $15 billion worth, this year, Bloomberg reports.
In 2012, central banks acquired 535 tons, the most since 1964.
However, gold prices have been faltering so far this year after a 12 consecutive-year rally. Gold has declined about 21% so far in 2013, the largest decline since 1981.
Gold futures were trading around $1,324 per ounce Tuesday. [Early Signs US Fiscal Impasse May Not Be Ignored Much Longer]
Central banks have been known to mistime gold investments, buying high and selling low, as a way to shield economies from inflation. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke described gold as an asset rather than money and pointed out that central banks own bullion as a “long-term tradition.”
“Central bankers have typically bought when you probably should be selling and selling when you probably should be buying,” Michael Strauss, chief investment strategist and chief economist at Commonfund Group, said in the article. “It’s going to be a difficult market and sometimes the price of gold is driven by emotions rather than fundamental factors. Central banks have been bad traders of gold.”
Some emerging market central banks are beginning to hoard gold as a defensive alternative currency. For instance, Venezuela holds 67% of its reserves in gold.
“Some central bankers have come to see gold as an alternative currency, certainly as a defense against potential inflationary pressures from the historical deployment of quantitative easing and low rates by global central banks,” Quincy Krosby, a market strategist for Prudential Financial Inc., said in the article.
Meanwhile, gold-related exchange traded products saw $60.4 billion, or 43% of assets, in outflows this year. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) , iShares Gold Trust (IAU) and ETF Physical Swiss Gold (SGOL) have all declined about 21% year-to-date. [Gold ETFs Face Scary Technical Outlook]
For more information on gold, visit our gold category.
Max Chen contributed to this article.
Full disclosure: Tom Lydon’s clients own GLD.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.
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