Gold's Recovery Has Backed Itself Into a Corner


The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

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Today's Highlight: Gold really has only one opportunity to reverse the trend up before the weekend, which essentially means that this may be its last opportunity before mid-week. Trending down into the weekend would be more credible for resuming the decline.

Dollar Basket
Dec Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Another deeper test of the probes under 80.05-80.10 support held through the close, and a second consecutive lower close has confirmed at least one more new low close is due.

Dec Contract EC; (FXE)
Retesting the rally's 1.3580 objective again produced a second consecutive higher close that confirmed the breakout, now requiring at least one more new high close, not necessarily consecutive.

Dec Contract GC; (GLD)
Wednesday's rally back to 1321.00 resistance required closing back under 1306.00 to signal momentum had reversed down. It was retested Thursday morning after an overnight dip tested 1306.00 as support, and its resistance held.

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Dec Contract SI; (SLV)
Yet another test of 21.88-21.95 resistance pushed back before extending higher to at least attack 23.00. The afternoon's recovery stopped just short of 21.88, which is potentially well-placed pessimism that would make early strength credible for extending higher intraday.

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30-year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (TLT)
Falling stocks encouraged a flight-to-quality that helped the long bond to retest Wednesday's 133-29 high Thursday morning, still needing at least one more fresh high close before sellers could begin gaining traction.

Crude Oil
Oct Contract CL; (USO)
Wednesday's bounce through the 102.95 bounce limit up to 104.00 did not extend higher Thursday, and drifted back to 102.95. Closing under 102.30 would reinstate fresh lows targeting 99.10.

Natural Gas
Oct Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Wednesday's reaction down extended down further Thursday. No relevant support has been broken, so there is no requirement for any lower low before a credible rally can begin.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.

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