NEW YORK (TheStreet
) -- This week's earnings reports are being evaluated under the clouds of market volatility caused by the crash of Comex gold and the wake of the bombs at the Boston Marathon on Monday. Unexpected waves of volatility are reasons why traders and investors need to know the value levels and risky levels at which to buy-and-trade stocks as share prices pop or drop in reaction to expected or unexpected quarterly results.
On Monday I wrote, Market Focus Shifts to First-Quarter Earnings and the earning reports pre-market on Tuesday did not disappoint. The reports that came out after the close saw mixed reactions.
Goldman Sachs ($144.10 vs. $149.12 at Friday's close) beat EPS estimates by 44 cents and opened higher on Tuesday, but the hold rated stock could not sustain gains trading as low as $142.14 as this week's pivot at $144.59 became a magnet. The stock failed to hold its 50-day simple moving average at $150.10 on Monday.
Coca Cola ($42.37 vs. $41.08 at Friday's close) beat EPS estimates by a penny and this buy rated Dow component opened higher and tested my semiannual risky level at $42.26 trading as high as $42.48 on Tuesday. The all time high is $44.47 set in July 1998.
Johnson & Johnson ($83.44 vs. $82.74 at Friday's close) beat EPS estimates by three cents and this hold rated Dow component traded to a new all-time high at $83.54 versus this week's risky level at $83.64.
CSX ($24.00 in after hours Tuesday vs. $24.51 at Friday's close) remains a sell rated transportation stock so it's not a surprise that the stock slipped even with a nickel beat on earnings per share. My monthly value level is $20.93 with a weekly risky level at $24.85.
Intel ($22.07 in after hours Tuesday vs. $21.67 at Friday's close) missed EPS estimates by two cents but the stock rebounded 0.7% despite the miss and couscous outlook on PC sales. A close on Friday above or below its five-week modified moving average at $21.45 and the 200-week SMA at $22.00 will key the stock's upside or downside.
Yahoo! ($22.80 in after hours Tuesday vs. $24.69 at Friday's close) beat EPS estimates by nine cents but the stock slumped 4.2% as revenue dipped on ad struggles.
Yahoo stock set a new multi-year high at $24.99 on Monday put the stock on the cusp of my monthly pivot at $22.85 after a near test of this week's risky level at $25.11 with my annual pivot at $23.56 in-between.
Today I handicap seven more stocks whose earnings could key market direction, three after the close on Thursday and four pre-market Friday. My analysis includes four more Dow components.
Reading the Table
OV/UN Valued: Stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine.
VE Rating: A "1-engine" rating is a strong sell, a "2-engine" rating is a sell, a "3-engine" rating is a hold, a "4-engine" rating is a buy and a "5-engine" rating is a strong buy.
Last 12-Month Return (%): Stocks with a red number declined by that percentage over the last 12 months. Stocks with a black number increased by that percentage.
Forecast 1-Year Return: Stocks with a red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next 12 months. Stocks with a black number in the table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next 12 months.
Value Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-weekly, M-monthly, Q-quarterly, S-semiannual and A-annual.
Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that should be a magnet during the time frame noted.
Risky Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to sell on strength.
The six companies I cover today represent five overvalued sectors.
Companies reporting after the close on Thursday:
Google ($793.37) is a hold rated stock in the computer and technology sector which is 7.8% overvalued. Google hit an all-time high at $844.00 on March 6 and since then has been trading under the hype of several Wall Street price targets at $1,000.00. The stock is positioned below its 50-day SMA at $800.28 pre-earnings. The weekly chart profile will be negative on a close this week below the five-week MMA at $791.46. My quarterly value level is $732.99 with a weekly pivot at $411.41 and monthly risky level at $849.45.
IBM ($212.00) is a buy rated Dow component in the computer and technology sector. The stock set a multi-year high at $215.90 on March 15. The weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at $209.31. My monthly value level is $206.01 with a weekly risky level at $218.32.
Microsoft ($28.97) is a Dow component in the computer and technology sector that has recently been downgraded to hold from buy. The stock spiked to a 2013 high at $30.32 on April 10 then fell to its 200-day SMA at $28.16. The weekly chart profile is neutral on declining momentum and last week's close above the five-week MMA at $28.43. My annual value level is $27.92 with an annual pivot at $28.57 and quarterly risky level at $30.91.
Companies reporting pre-market on Friday:
General Electric ($23.10) is a buy rated stock Dow component in the multi-sector conglomerate sector which is 0.3% overvalued. GE set a multi-year high at $23.90 on March 8. The weekly chart profile shifts to negative on a Friday close below the five-week MMA at $23.10. My annual value level is $21.09 with a monthly risky level at $23.33.
McDonald's ($103.04) is a buy rated Dow component in the retail-wholesale sector which is 13.8% overvalued. The stock set a multi-year high at $103.70 on April 12. The weekly chart is positive but extremely overbought with the five-week MMA at $99.85. My semiannual value level is $96.07 with an annual pivot at $99.38 and annual risky level at $104.63.
Schlumberger ($73.29) was downgraded to hold from buy after setting a 52-week high at $82.00 on Feb. 14. The stock is in the oils-energy sector which is 0.4% undervalued.
The weekly chart profile stays negative on a close this week below the five-week MMA at $75.47 with the 200-week SMA a support at $70.90. My quarterly value level is $62.96 with a weekly pivot at $72.80 and monthly risky level at $75.59.
Under Armour ($56.39) is a hold rated stock in the consumer discretionary sector which is 5.0% overvalued. The stock traded to a 2013 high at $58.52 on Monday. The weekly chart profile is positive with the five-week MMA at $52.77. My semiannual value level is $52.01 with a quarterly pivot at $56.81 and a monthly risky level at $57.75, which was tested on Tuesday.
At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
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