Halifax House Price Forecast November 2012


LEEDS, UNITED KINGDOM--(Marketwire - Dec 10, 2012) -

UK House prices  
November 2012 (seasonally adjusted)
Annual change -1.3%
Quarterly change -0.7%
Monthly change 1.0%
Average Price £160,879

Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said:

"There has been very little change in house prices overall during the past year with the average UK price in November almost identical to that in November 2011. Prices in the three months from September to November were 0.7% lower than in the preceding three months.

"Both demand and supply pressures in the market have altered little during the course of 2012, and this has been the key reason for the lack of anything other than modest changes in house sales and prices at a national level compared with a year ago. Challenging economic conditions have constrained housing demand whilst low interest rates have helped to support affordability and demand.

"There are signs that the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is helping to reduce mortgage rates and may be contributing to the recent pick-up in mortgage approvals. The FLS should help to ease credit constraints, resulting in some improvement in mortgage availability in 2013."

Key facts

• House prices in the three months to November were 0.7% lower than in the previous three months. This was the sixth consecutive fall in this measure of the underlying trend but was an improvement on the 1.0% decrease in October.

• Prices in the three months to November were 1.3% lower than in the same period a year earlier. This is the same as the annual rate at the end of 2011: -1.3% in December 2011.

• House prices in November 2012 were virtually unchanged compared with November 2011 at an average of £160,879.

• House prices increased by 1.0% in November. There have been five monthly rises and six falls in the first 11 months of 2012.

• Improvement in mortgage approvals continues. The industry-wide number of mortgages approved to finance house purchase rose for the fourth consecutive month in October. Approvals for purchase - a leading indicator of completed house sales - increased by 5% to 53,000 in October. There was a 19% rise between June and October on a seasonally adjusted basis, but approvals in October were only 1% higher than a year earlier. (Source: Bank of England, seasonally-adjusted figures)

• In a separate report released today, Halifax expects house prices to remain broadly unchanged nationally next year.


The Halifax House Price Index is the UK''s longest running monthly house price series with data covering the whole country going back to January 1983.  From this data, a "standardised" house price is calculated and property price movements on a like-for-like basis (including seasonal adjustments) are analysed over time. The annual change is calculated as an average for the latest three months compared with the same period a year earlier. These figures provide a better picture of the underlying trend compared to a monthly year-on-year number as they smooth out any short-term fluctuations.

For more information on our housing market research, click on www.Lloydsbankinggroup.com.

    UK House Prices: Historical Data    
    All Houses, All Buyers (Seasonally Adjusted)    
    Standardised       Price/
  Index Average Price Monthly Quarterly Annual Earnings
  1983=100 £ Change Change Change Ratio
  1 2 % %* %** 3
Nov 2011 520.7 160,894 -1.2 -0.6 -1.0 4.37
Dec 517.5 159,888 -0.6 -0.1 -1.3 4.33
Jan 2012 520.8 160,925 0.6 -0.9 -1.8 4.38
Feb 518.9 160,328 -0.4 -0.8 -1.9 4.34
Mar 530.1 163,796 2.2 -0.1 -0.6 4.42
Apr 518.1 160,073 -2.3 0.5 -0.5 4.43
May 520.4 160,781 0.4 0.7 -0.1 4.44
Jun 524.6 162,104 0.8 -0.3 -0.5 4.46
Jul 520.9 160,961 -0.7 -0.1 -0.6 4.43
Aug 518.3 160,142 -0.5 -0.3 -0.9 4.40
Sep 516.1 159,467 -0.4 -0.5 -1.2 4.38
Oct 515.6 159,313 -0.1 -1.0 -1.7 4.36(e)
Nov 520.7 160,879 1.0 -0.7 -1.3 4.39(e)
* House price data on a quarterly basis provides the clearest indication of overall market trends, smoothing out the monthly volatility caused by the reduced number of monthly transactions used to calculate all house price indices.
** The annual change numbers are the quarterly year-on-year figures. These figures provide a better picture of underlying trends compared to a monthly year-on-year number as they smooth out any short-term fluctuations.


The standardised index is seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Bureau of the Census XII moving-average method based on a rolling 84-month series. Each month, the seasonally adjusted figure for the same month a year ago and last month''s figure are subject to revision.


The standardised average price is calculated using the Halifax''s mix adjusted methodology.


Ratio of the Halifax standardised average price to national average earnings for full-time male employees. Price Earnings ratios revised to reflect new data in the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE). (e) Halifax estimates.

Halifax House Price Index is prepared from information that we believe is collated with care, but we do not make any statement as to its accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue/withdraw this, or any other report. Any use of this report for an individual''s own or third party commercial purposes is done entirely at the risk of the person making such use and solely the responsibility of the person or persons making such reliance. © Bank of Scotland plc all rights reserved 2012.

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