When Bill McBride speaks, we listen.
McBride is the writer behind the pathbreaking economics blog Calculated Risk, a site which we've been reading for years, due to an obsession with chronicling the datapoints that surpasses our own.
McBride doesn't always make "calls" but when he does they're done with a feel for the drivers of the economy that are more reality-based than just about any other pundit out there.
He was early on calling for the housing crash, and he nailed its causes and ripple effects.
And yet unlike many other early doomers, he switched his view at the right time (basically the bottom) and has been right since then.
He called the housing rebound in 2011, and has continued to be optimistic.
And so you should know that he recently stated again his optimism about the US economy, which basically boils down to a few simple ideas: Just due to pent up demand and demographics, we're still at the early stages of the real estate cycle, and if you believe that that cycle is going to continue to improve, then there's virtually no chance of an imminent recession. Add in the return of growth from state and local (which are done with their multi-year austerity campaign), the end of the fiscal drag, and the end of the household deleveraging, there's a case to be made that plenty of cyclical upward drivers persist.
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