Just a few weeks ago I felt like a broken record, squeaky wheel and salmon (swimming against the current). Why?
If you are a regular reader of my commentary, I apologize in advance, because I’ve been writing (and you’ve been reading) a lot about this.
Starting in late April the financial media turned inexplicably bearish (inexplicable because the S&P 500 and Dow Jones traded within 1.5% of their all-time highs).
MarketWatch: “Risk of 20% correction highest until October” – April 30
CNBC: “This chart says we’re in for a 20% correction” – May 1
CNBC: “This chart is ominous for S&P” – May 1
Bloomberg: “The next liquidation crisis: What are the signals?” – May 5
TradingFloor.com: “A deep correction’s on the horizon” – May 5
CNBC: “I’m worried about a crisis bigger than 2008: Dr Doom” – May 8
SeekingAlpha: “Economic hurricane season is approaching” – May 10
MarketWatch: “Stocks are telling you a bear market is coming – May 15
Bloomberg: “Tepper: ‘Hold cash, market’s dangerous’” – May 15
Those are just a small sampling of headlines I’ve collected. As bearish headliners literally littered the front pages of newspapers and home pages of website, it became clear that this is bullish for stocks.
Here are some of my commentarys' headlines:
iSPYETF: “Expecting ‘sell in May and go away’ pattern? – Prepare for Surprise” – May 1
iSPYETF: “Too many bears spoil the crash (or correction)" – May 6
iSPYETF: “3 Reasons to expect the May blues … But not yet” – May 9
iSPYETF: “Fed funds rate suggests S&P 500 rally” – May 13
iSPYETF: “Contrarian take: Did doomsday prophets scare the bear?” – May 16
The emergence of doomsday prophets was unfortunate, as it ‘jinxed’ my forecast for a May correction made in the 2014 S&P 500 forecast (published January 15).
My April 30 Profit Radar Report update stated that: “I get suspicious when our carefully crafted outlook becomes the trade of the crowd and a crowded trade.”
The May 4 Profit Radar Report was more specific: “The ‘chart detective’ inside of me favors a shallow dip to 1,874 – 1,850 followed by a pop to 1,915 for the S&P 500 (^GSPC).”
The S&P 500 (SPY) almost captured 1,915 already, but excitement about yet another round of new all-time highs for Mr. Dow and S&P is limited. In fact, here are two headlines from today:
“This is a huge sign the markets aren’t health”
“Is the volatility crash a new reason to worry?”
Major market tops (even minor ones) are accompanied by hope and enthusiasm. The only hope I see is premature bears hoping the market will drop.
To my own dismay I realized that I had inadvertently become part of the 'financial media problem.' It would be humorous if real money weren't involved. If you want a funny example (in an ironic kind of way) click on the link below. The subheading "Now I'm Part of the Problem" explains my conundrum:
Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.
More From iSPYETF
- Record Gamble: Trader Spends $13 Million on Bullish VIX Bet
- The Only Free and Updated VIX Seasonality Chart
- A Look at the Risk Off Gauge That Correctly Signaled the 2000 and 2007 Tops