Bonds: Last gasp before the August calm (Part 5 of 5)
(Continued from Part 4: Downside potential in September for high-yield bonds)
More PIK bonds signal issuer aggressiveness
An additional three PIK bonds (pay-in-kind bonds, which give the issuer the option to either pay a cash coupon or accrue it to its principal) priced last week, totaling eight in three weeks and amounting $5 billion.
PIK bonds are relevant mainly because they’re usually issued by lower-rated, potentially cash flow–constrained issuers with lower ratings. In many cases, these bonds are issued at the holding company level, which makes its payments junior in priority versus the payments of debt at the subsidiary level.
Record week signals the end may be close
This is the highest three week issuance on record. The year-to-date issuance (19 PIK bonds) is also the second most on record since 31 PIK bonds were issued in 2007.
Another record with respect to these bonds is that year-to-date, $6.5 billion in dividends have been funded via PIK bonds. This is an all-time record.
Generally record-setting aggressive issuance signals the end of a bull rally. We’re likely close to the point where issuers will start to push back and push yields higher and so bond prices (HYG) lower.
Read on to see how the leveraged loan market has behaved recently.
Other articles in this series
- Part 1 - Why the fixed income market is unusually active
- Part 2 - Are investors feeling overly cozy?
- Part 3 - Reversal on the horizon for fixed income bonds